Quote Originally Posted by Ski View Post
Kind of thinking out loud here, so flame away as appropriate and required:

1. What if there is no COG in a conflict? Seems to me that searching for a COG is somewhat of a silver bullet scenario where if eliminate, destroy or otherwise a neutralize a COG = success. With so many different groups of people in the fights in the Ghan and Iraq, I don't think a single COG is definable. The Shi'a are broken into many sub-groups, as are the Sunni, perhaps the Kurds. Add religious and tribal differences to the mix as well. The same applies to Afghanistan where Pashtun, Uzbek, Hazara, etc...

So if there are numerous groups in play, there probably are multiple COG's as well. Identifying these are tough to say the least, and one while COG may very well prove to be the correct one for one group, it may be the antithesis to another.

I think we may be in a scenario where an "umbrella COG" does not exist, and in fact we may have an almost endless series of "smaller" COG's that apply to whatever group of people we deem an enemy (how do we destroy/neutralize,flip them) neutrals (how do we get them to stay neutral, avoid them flipping to the enemy, flip them towards us) and the friendlies (how to we keep them friendly).


Again, just some random musings and thoughts off the top of the skull.

Outstanding!!! This is exactly why I believe EBO is more applicable to COIN warfare than most people give it credit for.
1- if no COG exists create one!!!!and this may be the greatest opportunity that their is to defeat an insurgency.

2-In a basic 5 rings analysis of COG's there is usually a minimum of 25 to 75 targets you will need to effect in order to change the system.


Have to leave now and go conduct EBO on my lawn mower.