Assuming that the Israelis really did hit an important, nuclear-related target... (They may have. They may not have. They may have thought they did, but didn't. They may even have been doing something else. based on what is available open-source, it is still not clear whether to file this one under "Osirak" or "al-Shifa pharmaceutical plant, Sudan" or something in between)


Quote Originally Posted by LawVol View Post
http://aimpoints.hq.af.mil/display.cfm?id=21426
1) What would the impact of an attack be on the pro-democracy forces within Iran?
My sense--reinforced by talking with pro-democracy students and some members of the reformist camp in Tehran --is that it would further marginalize them by spurring a considerable "rally around the flag" effect.

2) What effect would it have on our current small wars efforts, especially Iraq? In particular, how would it effect the usefulness of our air assets?
There are two effects to be considered here: the extent to which a conflict with Iran would bleed away resources needed in Iraq, and the extent to which it would complicate the political and military environment within Iraq itself. The two are linked, of course.

I'll leave others to address how much CAS capability might be diverted to Iran (or flying CAPs over Iraq, post-strike).

I do think the Iranians would step up their efforts to complicate the US position in Iraq by several orders of magnitude, even at the risk of destabilizing the (friendly) Maliki government. A US strike would convince Tehran that the removal of US combat forces from Iraq (and Afghanistan) was a vital, overriding national interest--their Cuban Missile Crisis, as it were.


3) I'm not familiar with Iran's conventional power, but assuming it is better than Saddam's army (i.e. it will fight), do we face a hybrid or protean war? In other words, could Iran combine its conventional forces and tactics with its use of hezbollah and other terrorist-type forces to fight the war?
Yes, it will fight, although its massively out-classed. I do hope no one is thinking of inserting conventional ground forces in Iran, however.

Is it possible that after being attacked, Iran launches rockets and missles (conventional and/or chemical) into Israel, US bases in Iraq/Afghanistan, and other regional US allies?
I think Iranian escalation to WMD use is unlikely, unless an attack against its nuclear facilities caused substantial radiological contamination. Conventional retalition is reasonably likely (much depends on the scope and duration of a US attack).

As this is occuring, could not Hezbollah then attack into northern Israel while Quds forces infiltrate more heavily into Iraq?
There's some debate on the former--it would do Hizbullah considerable political damage in Lebanon to be seen to be retaliating at Tehran's behest.. on the other hand, if a US strike were prolonged and very damaging (and targeted vital national assets such as refineries) Iranian pressure on its Lebanese ally to do something would be substantial. Certainly, IRGC activity in Iraq would increase dramatically.

Could not these forces also infiltrate or activate in the US and/or Europe? If so, could we not be fighting a conventional war while simultaneously fighting a small one at various places in the world?
There's a lot of debate over the capabilities of the Iranian MOIS and IRGC abroad, and the willingness to use those for retaliation. There's equal debate on the capabilities of Hizbullah's External Security Organization. It is all rather unclear.