Good news -- the insurgency is over! Now we need a new strategy for the Iraq War.

[Mark O'Neill]

It's a historical fact, however shocking. Martin van Creveld discusses this at some length in the closing chapters of The Changing Face of War.

Since Mao brought 4GW to maturity, and more so as 4GW art has developed since then, insurgents have defeated foreigners. Other than in small and shallowly rooted uprisings, foreigners lose. Western, Asian, developed nations, emerging nations – it makes no difference. (domestic conflicts among locals are more complex to analyze).

There are borderline cases, as always in human events. Like Northern Ireland. But in general the record is clear.

So it follows that COIN manuals are written by folks who have not won these kinds of wars. That remains true until either we win one or our opponents write a manual for us.

4GW forces us to confront many harsh realities. Killing children-soldiers, suicide bombers, the clash of universal truths vs. revealed truths, the evolution of war perhaps making our military organizations obsolete.

None of this is new in history. Now it’s happening to us.

FM,


I would welcome a sensible exposition of your ideas about this issue rather than a tired recycling of vaguely articluated, second hand (and eminently contestable) opinions.

Thrill me with your insight.

Mark