Pet Peeve - Trying to Apply M&S to Small Wars Issues

[M. J. Dougherty]

ALCON,
I generally agree with everything said in this particular thread. However, I do think that in some cases human behavior can be modeled. However for the most part, the U.S. intelligence community is focused on "industrial" or "mass production" intelligence processes and not a specific and expensive intelligence problem. (This ia situation is analgous to the Death Star in Star Wars. A singl X-wing fighter was not considered a real "likely" threat, so the defense was not as tight as it should have been.) Rather than invest heavily in HUMINT to focus on a single sticky problem, efforts are focused high tech solutions that give at best a 50% solution and are eaicly spoofed by a knowledgable enemy.

As to enemy intentions, I have attached an article by Lester Grau on foreign national perceptions and U.S. Warfighting. It was posted to the Foreign Military Studies Office webpage some time ago but is no- longer there. It remains very relevant however and clearly illustrates the disconnect between our adversaries (or potential adversaries) and the focus of U.S. intelligence.