--- I chose that example because it was a clear cut demonstration of missing the obvious, and because Red-teaming was one of Tenet's recommendations.
--- It is a pervasive problem according to Johnston's study and many more critiques of Intelligence analysis over the years. I could have filled a page with just references to that one issue.Mirror imaging is a common analytic failing of new and poorly trained analysts. However, to categorize it as a "seemingly impossible problem" is a gross exaggeration.
--- If the problem were simple, it would no longer be a problem. Clearly, for anyone who reads the literature, that's not the case.Solution to such problems are not "seemingly impossible"; they are simple.
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