Anonymous: Re: Pakistan

[SWCAdmin]

-- "The first and foremost lesson is that we need the wholehearted backing of the host nation government. That govenment seems to be in a 'state of flux' right now." Is that realistic? A strong majority of the population of Pakistan disapproves of the U.S. and our foreign policy. How long will a Pakistani government giving us their "wholehearted backing" last?

[marct]

There is a crucial distinction that needs to be made here between the government of a host nation and the the particular government in power in a host nation. In the case of Pakistan, and leaving out the Tribal Territories, the support for the radical Islamist irhabi is fairly low ~ 7%. The current state of "flux" is not going to change the general thrust of the Pakistan government as far as the irhabi are concerned, even if there is a shift in which government is in power.

[tequila]

Low levels of support for radical jihadis taking over the government should not be conflated with a corresponding high level of support for a pro-American government.

If the broad mass of the Pakistani public (a term I hesitate to use given its extraordinary diversity) becomes convinced that the U.S. has turned its government and military into a puppet regime that will shed the blood of its own (jihadi or not) at a foreigner's bidding, then such a regime will not be either stable or long-lasting. We are dangerously close to such a tipping point now. What will follow will not be a Taliban regime, but it will also not necessarily be a government amenable to American strategic goals.

[marct]

Really good point, Tequila. I should have noted that the "backing" should be issue based rather than some sort of empire-client form. I also agree that it is very close to a tipping point and may, quite possibly, end up as a government that opposes parts of US strategic policy. I think this is why it is so important to have very clear - "transparent" - foreign policy agendas, and allow your partners in one area to be opponents in another. That's what we used to call "professional politics" back when I was in that game.