Culmination Point

[Rank amateur]

You've already skewed the analysis. It was not at all clear in 1940 that the US would become the arsenal of democracy.

No but it was obvious sometime before Adolph married Eva. Therefore, the culmination point was somewhere between those two points in time.

After Cannhae or Lake Trasimene, I do not think the outcome was so inevitable.

I agree - so the cumulation point hadn't been reached yet - but I still would've bet on the Italians. (There was a reason Hannibal didn't sack Rome, in spite of being urged to.) The Romans still had more resources to execute their strategy and I would've bet that Hannibal wouldn't be able to alter that equation.

Again this only became inevitable after the end of the period of Fabian delay, and the Roman decision to invade Tunisia

Careful, it almost sounds like you're saying there is a point before the end of a war where victory becomes inevitable.

I agree with you that the concept is most useful in hindsight, but I agree with Rob that it has some strategic relevance. (I think it would've been useful if a few people had realized that toppling Saddam's statue was a photo op, not a culmination point.) I also agree with Tom. The article over states things, but preparing the world for "Things are better, so we don't need as many troops now" is a good thing.