Stu-6,

Yes, of course, you're right. I don't mean that Jerusalem is the only issue. I just picked out one (I considered to be the biggest). You list others, and perhaps I mentioned a micro-reason while you mentioned a set of macro-reasons. But we end up the same place.

Probability of all that happening as you asked?: Range of 1E-6 to 1E-5

They should spend their time on Iraq.