Great question RA. I would offer that the decision point towards "eyes on the population" COIN was always out there, keeping pace with other strategic ebbs and flows, but for whatever reason, not quite palatable or maybe not possible to pick due to troop strength, political capital issues, etc.

We did hit a culmination point of sorts, which made the decision point not so much more suitable to pick, but rather a case of "well, we've tried about everything else...what was that guy talking about the other day?"