I also don't see civil war, insurgency, and terrorism as discrete phenomena. Every insurgency I know of is associated with a civil war of some type. Terrorism is an operational method or tactic.
Steve, it will sound like I'm tripping over mouse turds debating this, but I think it is critically important to understand who the enemy (or elements hostile to our overall objectives) are exactly before we can develop a strategy that results in the desired outcomes, which by the way seem to be getting more realistic each passing day.

The terrorism piece is hard, and I agree that the vast majority of insurgent groups have used terrorism as a tactic to varying degrees to help achieve their political aims. The Shinnng Path being one non-Islamist example among many. However, the initial leadership of AQI was foreign (may still be), and their primary tactic was and remains horrendous acts of terror, that is not nested with insurgents and resistance fighters. 4th, 5th, or 13th Generation Warfare, I don't know, but this appears to be something new, and I'm not convinced that a British style COIN strategy will have much of an impact on it (probably need a much more robust N. Ireland approach) for AQI, while we do need a British COIN strategy for the former regime loyalists. Two different strategies, and that doesn't even address the Civil conflict between the Sunnis and Shi'a. That requires a deal between the two warring factions, more along the lines of traditional peace enforcement. You have your terms of reference and you go in an enforce them. You can't very well mobilize the Sunni's to mobilize to support the government, when the government is perceived to be leading the Shi'a death squads. So instead, we support the Sunni's from the bottom up, by forming militia groups.

Each of these strategies tend to counteract the other, so if Ken has a plan to bring this all to bay, I would definitely like to hear it. At the same type our political will hour glass is running out of sand.

I also think the definition between a resistance force and an insurgency is a useful definition. A resistance force is still an insurgency, but it is easier for them to maintain the moral high ground and mobilize the population to support them, such as the French Resistance fighting the Germans. A pure insurgency, such as in Greece in the early 50's, is more likely to fail, because their rallying call is normally limited to a few malcontents. A resistance defines the type of insurgency, and that nuance is important.


Ken, if the oil keeps flowing to the global economy, then we won , or perhaps better stated, at least we didn't mess that up too.