Quote Originally Posted by SWJED
I have read and read, studied and studied all of the arguments concerning a political solution to the Hizballah situation. There is no doubt in my mind that they have to be erased (read- extreme prejudice) from any Middle East peace equation.
If only it were that easy. Remember, Hizballah is a legitimate political party in Lebanon and holds several elected seats in the Lebanese parliament. They have also been heavily engaged in public works over the past decade+, especially in South Lebanon - building schools, funding small farmers and sending kids to overseas universities. To top all that off, to many Lebanese (not just Shi'a) they are viewed as Heroes for facing up to the IDF and forcing their withdrawal from the occupation of South Lebanon.

Sure many Lebanese haven't been happy with their retention of an armed militia antagonizing Israel along the border. They are also not exactly pleased with the continuing influence of Syria and Iran that the activities of the militia imply. However, the Lebanese people are also very strongly nationalistic - and the current Israeli blockade and destruction of infrastructure - along with the comcomitant civilian casualties - only serves to unite Lebanese factions against Israel.
Quote Originally Posted by SWJED
Of course that means that Iran and Syria have to be dealt with - and that is the 'wild card' - but they have to be dealt with - firmly - as diplomacy seems to escape both of these state-sponsors of terrorism.

With our commitments to the GWOT and its extensions in Iraq, Afghanistan, HOA, SEA, and South America we can hardly afford to concentrate on (or encourage) long-term negotiations with a non-state entity that is sworn to erase the nation of Israel. Same – same with the state-sponsors – there are many indications that the current situation was sponsored by Iran and Syria as a diversion from their own particular problems in dealing with the civilized nations…
"Our commitments" is the key phrase. We are already spread out attempting to manage the problems that have arisen from attempting to execute complex strategic missions with a minimal footprint in both Iraq and Afghanistan. The drain on our intel and SOF assets for those missions puts a strain on arguably more critical under-the-radar missions around the globe - and effectively makes it almost impossible to execute anything meaningful in the area under discussion. But to give even the appearance through speech and actions that Israel is our proxy in this matter will do incalculable damage to our image in the entire region.

Tom hit the nail on the head - we need a strong government in Lebanon. Once again, we failed to exploit an opportunity - the "Cedar Revolution" and the withdrawal of Syrian forces. At the time, I'm sure it appeared to be too much of an effort given "our commitments". However, the current Israeli approach, although it will certainly disrupt Hizballah, has no chance of "erasing" it. On the contrary, the short-term disruption of the organization will be exchanged for long-term strengthening of its support networks after the inevitable cease-fire takes effect.

Part of this will be due to the weakening of the Lebanese government by Israeli attacks, and part due to Iranian funding enabling Hizballah to launch an immediate humanitarian campaign. This occurred after "Operation Grapes of Wrath", when the Israelis conciously set out through calculated destruction in the south to create large refugee flows that would put pressure on the Lebanese government regarding Hizballah. Their strategy failed utterly, and after the cease-fire, Hizballah rebuilt all the homes that had been destroyed by the Israelis, repaired infrastructure, and increased subsidies to students and farmers - all while the Lebanese government was still trying to figure out how to go about the recovery.

Yes, Hizballah's military wing needs to be disarmed, and the political organization needs to either be brought fully into the Lebanese mainstream and de-linked from its foreign patrons - or it needs to be delegitimized and its support cut away. Unfortunately, in the long-term strategic view, the current Israeli campaign will only have the opposite result.