The UNHCR (not UN) report quoted previously is not accurate regarding the rate of newly displaced Iraqis. The UNHCR does not have any active nationwide systematic monitoring of IDPs ongoing within Iraq. The now defunct UN Cluster F report that is often mislabeled as a UNHCR report relies on data collected by the MoDM, KRG and IOM and has been for some time considered the definitive source of information on Iraqi displacement. The last Cluster F report seems to indicate an ever growing number of IDPs, a theme that is also repeated in their latest funding appeal.

The rate of newly displaced Iraqis is now actually so low in Baghdad that the Iraqi Ministry of Displacement and Migration (MoDM) has stopped registering new applications for IDP status in order to catch up with many applications still in the pipeline. The way an Iraqi is registered as an IDP (and becomes eligible for a monthly support grant) is that local, district and then provincial councils have to validate the applicant before MoDM registers the person or family. All the other components of the system are ongoing as the MoDM catches up.

The simple reason for the apparent rise in the total number of Iraqi displaced is that collection efficiencies, the monetary incentives now being offered to register, fewer mixed urban neighborhoods and vastly increased security have generated a frenzy among poor Iraqis to get registered. The MoDM recently issued a clarification that their numbers only reflect the date a person becomes registered as an IDP with the Iraqi government, not the date or rate of displacement.

As for the Iraqi Red Crescent, it has never revealed its methodology regarding how or who they count as IDPs so are not considered as credible by serious humanitarian organizations working in Iraq.

The only organization that actively monitors when an Iraqi becomes displaced, their sectarian affiliation, where they came from and why they fled in the first place is the International Organization for Migration (IOM). Every two weeks they update the data on their web site. IOM does not count every displaced Iraqi nor is that their goal. This organization seeks out the most vulnerable Iraqi IDPs and conducts a monitoring and needs assessment when they find them so they can design and implement a life sustaining intervention, if needed, until the host community or the Government of Iraq can provide the sustainable support. These most vulnerable displaced Iraqis are the ones everyone should be most concerned with not the middle class Iraqis who fled abroad.

The key to understanding the relevance of displacement trends in the current counter-insurgency strategy is that most people will not come back to a place that is not perceived to be secure regardless of any economic or government incentives, and absent extreme coercive methods displacement and returns should be considered as a key indicator of success or failure in any security operation.