John McCreary just published a detailed analysis of casualtiy statistics and the state of the war in Afghanistan - the Taliban are making gains and are on the brink of retaking Kandahar, and this against a force ratio of 18-25:1.

From McCreary's report:

The ratios
The loss ratios show the Afghan Army is not doing well and the police remain in a crisis. The overall casualty ratio rebounded in favor of the Allies for the first time this year. The overall ratios of Taliban killed and wounded to Allied
killed and wounded was 3 : 1. In September and October, the ratio fell to 2 : 1. During the summer offensive the ratio was 4 : 1.

The kill ratios once again showed another drop in favor of the Taliban. In November the ratio dropped to 3 : 1, the lowest ratio since the fight began. In early summer the Allies killed Taliban at the rate of 7 : 1. In August the rate dropped to 5 : 1. In September it was 4 :1 in favor of the government. In October the ratio was 3.5 : 1. This is an alarming trend.

I have more on this at my site, along with a .pdf of the NightWatch report.