Iran, Nukes, Diplomacy and other options (catch all thread 2007-2010)

[Sean Osborne]

I think the thread has started to spin in circles, and break down frequently.

I agree. The thread has gone peripheral to the topic several times which directly led to off topic issues. I began to smell a "blame America" scent insted of focus on the NIE as the thread topic. This is one reason why I simply ceased my posting to this thread last evening.

I think we can all agree:

1) That current evidence seems to suggest that Iran has suspended its weaponization programme, for now at least.

2) It does have an active enrichment programme, of uncertain size. This could be civilian, it could be part of a drive to build a weapon, or it could be part of an effort to attain weapons capacity (without actually moving to a weapon).

3) The military option, regardless of its drawbacks or merits, is off the table for now.

NEGATIVE. I do not agree with Number 1 at all.

There is no conclusive current evidence that seems to suggest that Iran has ceased its nuclear weapons program. The Iranian dual use uranium enrichment cycle cited in this NIE is a primary indicator of Iranian intent.

This continuing dual-use processing of HEU is blatant Iranian defiance of the international community led by the IAEA.

The UNCLASSIFIED National Intelligence ESTIMATE does estimate, does assess, does make key judgements and does make key assumptions (see the NIE "scope note") based upon its overall estimation processes about an Iranian cessation of its nucear weapons program in 2003, and with moderate confidence Iran has not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007.

However, there are agencies within the US Intelligence Community who do not share this assessment. The Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Intelligence Council (NIC) have only moderate confidence that the 2003 halt to those activities represents a halt to Iran's entire nuclear weapons program. The NIC functions as the lead in the effort to product all NIE's for the DNI. This is a significant admission within the NIE with respect to the assessment of an Iranian halt to its active nuclear weapons program.

In my assessment this evidence makes evident that Rex's statement in item number 1 above is not an accurate statement with respect to what we ALL can agree on.

Also and therefore item number 3 is excluded in its entirety.

Need agreement here before moving forward to any other positions.