Iran, Nukes, Diplomacy and other options (catch all thread 2007-2010)

[Stan]

Question: If the US NIE is accurate and Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and had not re-started it as of mid-2007, how can Iran be capable of manufacturing a weapon in about two years time?

The unclassified NIE states on its last page the basis of the US and Israeli differences:

The details regarding these differences would appear to exist in the classified version of the NIE.

Sean, the unclas version here is slightly different from your quote.

• We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough HEU for a weapon is late 2009, but that this is very unlikely.
• We judge with moderate confidence Iran probably would be technically capable of producing enough HEU for a weapon sometime during the 2010-2015 time frame. (INR judges Iran is unlikely to achieve this capability before 2013 because of foreseeable technical and programmatic problems.) All agencies recognize the possibility that this capability may not be attained until after 2015.

Condensing quotes is misleading and should be avoided.

My fix is tied to the necessity of getting well-placed HUMINT to determine the real status of the Iranian nuclear weapons program and go from there.

Bottom line: The enfranchised American public will elect the next chief executive decisionmaker and those who control the funding of the national policy the IC attempts to guide through their product.

Thanks for the quick fix !
Correct me if wrong herein, but covert intel from in-country would be performed by whom ? As I opined in my previous post, I doubt we have intel types with degrees in nuclear physics, and now is certainly not the time for more sneaky Sierra. They already don't trust us, and now we slip a few rocket scientists..wanna be..spies in with beards speaking arabic ?