Iran, Nukes, Diplomacy and other options (catch all thread 2007-2010)

[Sean Osborne]

I've now read the pdf three times and cannot understand why the 2009 date is even remotely significant.

Stan,

It has to do with what our unclassifed NIE specifically states about that year and what the Israeli intel assessment says about that year regarding the Iranian nuclear weapons program.

Maybe I should also bring to this 'table' what the French, British and Italian intel folks have to say on the matter of this NIE.

(Hmmmm, that sounds like a great idea to me at this point... broaden the scope of this thread to include other foreign intelligence assessments on the same Iranian nuclear weapons program as referenced in this current NIE!)

I can see and appreciate why Israel would have a differing view, as they sit on the border.

Actually Israel lies a significant number of miles west-southwest of the Iranian border with Iraq, and come to think of it, west of Jordan and southwest of Syria. The distance is nothing a theater ballistic missile like the Shahab-3/4, BM-25 or Kh-55 cruise missile can't handle though.

I have no doubt they have some serious concerns, but that should not influence hard intel.

There is NOTHING relating to "hard intel" with respect to the unclassified NIE. Sources and methods are thoroughly protected/sageguarded through the declassification process of the estimate by DNI, et al. More to the point, there's nothing about the words "estimate" or "assessment" or "judgement" or "assumption" even remotely related to "hard intelligence". Hard intelligence is what vetted, viable HUMINT is supposed to provide.

Yes, it is probably high time and logical at this point to bring into this discussion what the somewhat divergent intelligence assessments of our NATO allies on the Iranian nuclear weapons program have to say in order to add some distance from the politically charged nature of purely American opinion.