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    Default FYI - Another Review

    Washington Post - The March of Folly by Daniel Byman.

    ... As the title implies, Fiasco pulls no punches. Sure enough, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz and Feith come off badly in Ricks's account. But so do most Democratic members of Congress (whom Ricks labels not doves but "lambs" for their failure to oversee the executive branch) and the media, particularly the New York Times, which failed miserably to probe the Bush administration's war justifications and postwar planning. Ricks is also particularly scathing toward L. Paul Bremer, who led the civilian occupation authority in Iraq in 2003-04. Ricks quotes one colonel who described the efforts of Bremer's Coalition Provisional Authority as "pasting feathers together, hoping for a duck."

    Troubling as these failures are, they are by now reasonably familiar; what's far less well-known is the bungling of the senior military leadership. With devastating detail, Ricks documents how U.S. generals misunderstood the problems they faced in Iraq and shows how poorly prepared the Army was for the unanticipated danger of a postwar Sunni rebellion. For ignoring the risks of an insurgency after Saddam Hussein's fall, Gen. Tommy Franks, the head of U.S. Central Command, "flunks strategy," Ricks writes; the war's commanding general designed "perhaps the worst war plan in American history." Gen. Richard Myers, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff during the invasion, and his deputy, Gen. Peter Pace (who's since been promoted to take Myers's old job), come off as smiling yes-men who went along with amateurish impulses from the Bush administration's political leadership and who forsook their duty to offer detached, professional judgments, acting instead as administration flacks in both private and public.

    As a result of the lapses of the top brass and the haughtiness of Rumsfeld's men, the U.S. military came into Iraq inadequately prepared -- and hard-pressed to adapt. From the start, it failed to recognize that ensuring public order was the key to postwar success. As one general puts it, "I was on a street corner in Baghdad, smoking a cigar, watching some guys carry a sofa by -- and it never occurred to me that I was going to be the guy to go get that sofa back."

    As the insurgency deepened, the Pentagon's military and civilian leaders first ignored it, then worsened it by using wrongheaded tactics. By emphasizing killing the enemy rather than winning over the people, the U.S. military made new enemies more quickly than it eliminated existing foes. Mass arrests and other attempts to intimidate Iraqis backfired, swelling the insurgents' ranks. U.S. units and troops deployed to Iraq turned over quickly, shuttling in and out of the country with little attempt to build a coherent intelligence picture of the situation on the ground or to sustain hard-won relationships with the local Iraqi officials trying to make their country work. Cities such as Mosul and Fallujah were liberated from insurgents and then abandoned; inevitably, the insurgents took over again. Such mistakes are depressing but not entirely surprising: The U.S. military has forgotten many of the lessons of counterinsurgency warfare that it learned bitterly in Vietnam and elsewhere. Having neglected counterinsurgency in the military's training and education programs, we should not be shocked that we are ill-equipped to wage it.

    Indeed, the picture Ricks paints is so damning that it is, at times, too charitable to say that the military and civilian leadership failed. Fiasco portrays several commanders as misguided but trying their best, but others -- particularly the hapless Franks -- appear not to have tried at all. Worse, the overall war and occupation effort lacked the high-level White House coordination essential to victory, allowing Bremer to operate on his own, making major decisions without consulting the Pentagon or the National Security Council, let alone his counterparts on the military side of the occupation.

    These failures feel particularly raw given the sacrifices, grit and determination of the heroes of Ricks's book: the junior and noncommissioned officers risking their lives in Iraq's streets, as well as the few innovative senior officers, such as Lt. Gen. David H. Petraeus, who have shrewdly tried (as the New Yorker's George Packer has put it) to win "over the civilian population by encouraging economic reconstruction and local government." Whether getting supply convoys past insurgent strongholds, identifying ways to defeat the rebels' dreaded IEDs (improvised explosive devices) or deciding whether to cow or charm local leaders, creative officers often invented new tactics and strategy on the spot...

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    Taking out the surprise of an insurgency developing after Saddam fell I find a lot of similarity in America's tactics in Iraq and Afghanistan as described by David Galula. Overall, I would think we didn't apply good counterinsurgency tactics in Vietnam from a civil perspective (we did cream the opposition militarily, which didn't win the conflict). The opposite is true in Iraq. Based on my observations I can see the 80% civil and 20% military formula for a successful counterinsurgency has been unfolding in Iraq and Afghanistan. What is more ironic is that Mr. Galula's book was published in 1964. I find no reference to it as source of information as well as the USMC Small Wars Manual during the Vietnam period, though both are very popular today within the military. It seems we have radically changed our tactics from those of the Vietnam period and to good measure. As for a civil war breaking out in Iraq? An insurgency is a civil war. No one should be surprised of the sectarian violence that is occurring. Iraq has been in a civil war basically since the Baathist Fascist Party gained controlling power decades ago. And our military has always had a history of going into military action ill prepared and adapted and improvised from there. From starving our Continental Army, to the Union's winter campaign at Fredericksburg, to the Spanish Flu epidemic of the Expeditionary Forces, to the hedgerows of Normandy, to the ill equipped military to hold back the North Koreans when they stormed the south, to Operation Anaconda, to playing catch up on civil affairs in the "wild west" of Iraq. And as tragic as casualties are by this time in Vietnam, as well as Korea, our military suffered over 30,000 KIA in each conflict. I credit our low in comparison casualty rate at the present time to a change in tactics. I think we have learned from mistakes in the past and American lives have been saved in the process. In my opinion, there is no such thing as a well oiled counterinsurgency, whether it is being successful or not, because the enemy gets a vote as well. And with the counterinsurgency having a indigenous government in place that controls the propaganda I would bet the counterinsurgency is going better than most would think. For crying out loud, they blow up a recruitment line, they clean up the mess, and get right back in line.

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    Default Iraq: Phase One

    Bing West e-mailed his review of Tom Rick's book Fiasco. This review will appear in the 11 September issue of National Review. Here is an excerpt:

    (Mr. West, who served in the Marine infantry in Vietnam and later as assistant secretary of defense, is the award-winning author of several military histories, including The Village: A Combined Action Platoon in Vietnam and No True Glory: A Frontline Account of the Battle for Fallujah. He has been to Iraq nine times, accompanying over 20 battalions on operations.)

    ... Ricks builds a devastating case, with a focus exclusively upon the military aspects of Iraq. He portrays systemic failures of political-military leadership, of a kind not seen since World War I. The scale is vastly different, of course, but there are undeniable similarities—both in the initial unwillingness to adapt and in the unswerving loyalty accorded to self-assured incompetents. At the end of 2004, President Bush presented the Medal of Freedom to Gen. Tommy Franks and Amb. L. Paul Bremer. Ricks does not mince words about his opinion of those three men: “The U.S.-led invasion was launched recklessly (Bush), with a flawed plan for war (Franks) and a worse approach to occupation (Bremer).”

    Ricks’s premise is that invading Iraq turned into a military mess that could have been avoided...

    ... a portrayal of Franks, then head of Central Command, as abusive and impatient, “a cunning man, but not a deep thinker,” who “ran an extremely unhappy headquarters.” Franks, according to the author, had no plan for the occupation, and no intention of remaining the commander responsible for implementing it.

    In the middle section of the book, Ricks explains in detail how the U.S. military, once confronted with an insurgency, responded in 2003 and 2004 with sweeps, raids, and arrests that only inflamed the opposition. He lays the blame on three factors. The first was the appointment of Paul Bremer as the president’s proconsul. Bremer wielded his wide-ranging powers decisively but not judiciously. His key failure was to disband the Iraqi army, an error the American military did not appeal to secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld to overturn. The second mistake was the appointment by Central Command of Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez as commander of all U.S. forces in Iraq. Sanchez was out of his depth, at loggerheads with Bremer, and incapable of developing a comprehensive campaign plan. This led to the third error: unilateral American offensive operations...

    ... Gen. Tony Zinni is quoted time and again, damning the civilians for geopolitical naïveté, but Ricks does not let the generals escape criticism: He points out that it was not Rumsfeld but rather the Joint Chiefs and Central Command who dismissed Zinni’s operational plans as half-baked...

    Iraq marked a sea change in the American way of war. “Force Protection” meant minimizing casualties—so that over three years, there were fewer fatalities than in that one awful day of 9/11. Mess halls morphed into “dining facilities” offering salad bars, pizza bars, fast-food counters, Middle East cuisine, or good, old-fashioned steak and lobster, followed by ice cream, at a cost of about $34 a meal. Soldiers slept in air-conditioned rooms, chatted on the Internet, and played video games. We chose to fight a war that a veteran of Vietnam would not recognize. (Thrown into the cauldron of Fallujah, though, U.S. soldiers and Marines displayed courage and aggressiveness equal to any American generation.)

    Somewhere between 1966 and 2006, the conditions of war and the acceptability of misery and friendly casualties had changed. We didn’t have enough troops in Iraq partly because of how we chose to fight the war; Ricks blames this on shortcomings in military doctrine, but it may be equally attributable to the current mores of American society...

    Secretary Rumsfeld has said repeatedly that the U.S. military does not do nation-building. He is mistaken. In Iraq, building a nation is exactly what Gen. Casey and his subordinates are trying to do. It is the only way to succeed. The U.S. military has undertaken that staggering task because the rest of the U.S. government did not show up for this war.

    If, in the end, Iraq emerges intact and moderate, it will not be because of its political leaders. It will be because the Iraqi army, modeling its behavior to live up to the standards of the American army, is able to defeat both the Sunni insurgents and the Shiite militia. Of course there will be all kinds of political deals; and underlying each of them will be the cold calculus of who will prevail in a fight. The Iraqi Army - not its national assembly or its police or its religious and political personages - is the last, best hope for Iraq.

    While acknowledging that the U.S. military is beginning to get it right, Ricks concludes by asking whether it is too late to head off a low-level civil war that will result in a fragmentation of Iraq equivalent to that of Lebanon in the mid-1980s (or perhaps today). Ricks’s pessimism rests on his doubt that America will sustain its effort. That happened in Vietnam after the Tet offensive in 1968; although battlefield conditions markedly improved over the next two years, attitudes had hardened against the war and against our South Vietnamese allies...

    With the critique offered in Fiasco, Ricks makes a solid contribution to our shared understanding.
    Bing has much more to say - be sure to check out the entire review in the National Review. I will give a heads up when it goes online.

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    Default Additional Reviews

    Fiasco reviews:

    Weekly Standard by Max Boot

    This is a good book with a bad title. Anyone picking up a volume called Fiasco, with a snarky subtitle referring to "The American Military Adventure in Iraq," might expect another tome from the Michael Moore School of Policy Studies, with its level of analysis restricted to bumper-sticker slogans like "Bush Lied, People Died."

    In fact, this is a carefully researched account of the Iraq war by one of America's premier defense correspondents--Thomas Ricks of the Washington Post. His findings of pervasive high-level ineptitude, based on hundreds of interviews and thousands of pages of documents, will be much harder for reflexive defenders of the Bush administration to dismiss than the usual farrago of ideologically motivated accusations from political adversaries.
    Los Angeles Times / Pittsburgh Post-Gazette by Tony Perry

    His book is not a screed but a well-researched, strongly written account of the miscues that led from shock-and-awe to rampant sectarian strife. Ricks, a Pulitzer Prize winner, had access to top officers and their planning as well as "after-action" documents. More important, he was accorded candor.

    Much of the mess, he concludes, began with the Army and the Pentagon bureaucracy, their institutional rigidity, a lack of planning for combating an insurgency and poor personnel choices.

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    Default Iraq Postmortem

    Marine Corps Gazette book review - Iraq Postmortem by LtCol Frank Hoffman, USMCR. Reposted here with permission of the MCG.

    FIASCO: The American Military Adventure in Iraq. By Thomas E. Ricks. Penguin Books, New York, 2006, ISBN 159420103X, 481 pp., $27.95. (Member $25.15)

    This is an autopsy, not a book. In Fiasco, veteran Pentagon reporter Tom Ricks painstakingly dissects the American planning for and conduct of Operation IRAQI FREEDOM (OIF). This forensic examination is dispassionately professional and excruciatingly detailed. Many will disagree with this reviewer’s assessment of America’s Iraq policy and operations as moribund. But after reading this book, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that the patient, the administration’s aspirations for the Middle East, has died due to a combination of incompetent diagnosis and malpractice on the operating table. At best the current coalition posture in Iraq is little more than a life support system, and when we pull the plug, the patient will flat line. One cannot overlook the innumerable acts of great valor demonstrated for a noble cause, but the patient is just beyond saving.

    Tom Ricks’ written work is well known among Marines. His stints at The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post cover more than two decades of insightful defense reporting. He has been a member of two Pulitzer Prize-winning teams for national reporting. Both of his books, Making the Corps (Scribner, 1997) and A Soldier’s Duty (Random House, 2001), reflect his deep understanding of the culture of America’s Armed Forces. The former captured the incredible transformation of Marine enlistees at Marine Corps Recruit Depot Parris Island, while also raising concerns about the growing rift between our society and the U.S. military. Fiasco will further extend Ricks’ reputation due to his balanced and carefully crafted prose and his ability to exploit the collective observations of a vast network of Pentagon contacts and national security experts.

    Fiasco traces the development and conduct of current U.S. policy in Iraq from its roots in the messy endgame of Operation DESERT STORM in 1991 to the present postconflict situation. You do not have to cut through layers of history to get to the author’s thesis. On the very first page the author summarizes his conclusions. The U.S.-led invasion was launched recklessly, with a flawed plan for war and a worse approach to occupation. Spooked by its own false conclusions about the threat, the Bush administration hurried its diplomacy, short-circuited its war planning, and assembled an agonizingly incompetent occupation.

    The front portion of the book makes it very clear that the civilian policymakers were incompetent and arrogant in the extreme and that the current situation in Iraq can be laid at the feet of America’s highest officials. Several other books have already assessed prewar policy lapses and intelligence shortfalls. But the bulk of this book is oriented on delving much deeper into the subject’s vital organs, including the:

    . . . leadership of the U.S. military, who didn’t prepare the U.S. Army for the challenge it faced, and then wasted a year by using counter-productive tactics that were employed in unprofessional ignorance of the basic tenets of counterinsurgency warfare.

    The policy debacle is attributed to the many senior civilian and military officials responsible for intelligently assessing the nature of the Iraqi threat, and for devising an appropriate strategy. Ricks provides a number of concise vignettes in which the personality flaws of the characters in this American tragedy are pithily summarized. The serial exercise in self-deception and maldeployment of American military might that comes from this collection of personal interactions produces a grim toxicology report. It now seems more likely that history’s judgment will be that the U.S. invasion of Iraq in the spring of 2003 was based on perhaps the worst war plan in American history. It was a campaign for a few battles, not a plan to prevail and secure victory. Its incompleteness helped create the conditions for the difficult occupation that followed.

    Marine readers will find much to agree with, including Ricks’ characterization of many Marine leaders. Both retired Gen Anthony C. Zinni’s and retired LtGen Gregory S. Newbold’s well-founded reservations about U.S. policy before the war are chronicled. So too is the impressive combat performance of I Marine Expeditionary Force (I MEF) in 2003 led by LtGen James T. Conway, then-MajGen James N. Mattis, and then-MajGen James F. “Tamer” Amos. The performance of the California-based Marines in the tenuous postconflict phases is not given its due, but the planning and execution in both fights for Fallujah in April and November of 2004 are well covered.

    One interesting portion of the book deals with the different styles and operating methods used by the Army and the Marine Corps during the postconflict phases. This difference bubbled up from time to time in the media in late 2003 as I MEF was preparing to return to Iraq and is very evident in Fiasco. Those Marines who made the first deployment to Iraq believed that the tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP) they employed in their 4-month extended postconflict period proved the merits of a more constrained and comprehensive approach. These TTP reflect an ethos that is derived from the Marines’ classic Small Wars Manual and from ideas absorbed from British counterinsurgency experts. Lessons learned from OIF emphasized the need to transition to more culture-sensitive and less firepower-oriented tactics in order to swing the neutral portion of the population toward the coalition and the fledgling Iraqi Government.

    Members of the U.S. Army resented the implications of the so-called “velvet glove” approach when it appeared in the media in mid- to late 2003. The impression that the Marines were better prepared for complex contingencies was seen as a bit unseemly, especially since the Marines had previously worked largely in Shi’ite areas, and in the Army’s view may not have had a perfect picture on the volatile nature of Al Anbar Province. By the time Mattis’ team arrived in theater in March 2004, with the assistance of the 82d Airborne Division, the Marines had realized the true nature of the adversary in Iraq’s “wild west.”

    Ricks lauds the overall approach of a population-centric and kinetically disciplined style that was successfully implemented by then-MG David H. Petraeus, USA in Mosul in 2003 and in Tall Afar by the 3d Armored Combat Regiment later in 2005. Ironically, abetted by a small cadre of institutional insurgents within the U.S. Army, LTG Petraeus has now incorporated the velvet glove approach into the Army’s latest doctrine. While a bit harsh with the Army early in the book, later Ricks shows that the Army is substantially overhauling its education system to better cope with the nature of unconventional conflict.

    There is little doubt that the planning failures and heavy-handed transition period through the end of 2003 contributed to the growth of a nascent insurgency. Large unit sweeps by American forces and mass detentions helped elements of the former regime to recruit, arm, and train the underemployed youth and disaffected elements of Iraq for a protracted insurgency. However, Ricks’ depiction of the insurgency as a monolithic entity has limits. Likewise, his endorsement of classical counterinsurgency principles and insights from Mao-inspired rural insurgencies begs for amplification about the more complex mosaic in Iraq. The direct extrapolation of David Galula’s observations from Algeria in the 1960s, or lessons learned from El Salvador in the 1980s, should be applied with some judgment regarding the peculiar nature of this war.

    While Ricks is absolutely correct in his assessment that the enduring principles of effective counterinsurgency were not applied, further exploration of the discontinuities is warranted. There is a need for what Anthony Cordesman, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, calls “ruthless objectivity” when studying past cases of counterinsurgency for key lessons or models. As stated in the Small Wars Manual, “to a greater degree is each small war somewhat different from anything which has preceded it.” Thanks to globalization, the Internet, and Islam’s internal divisions, this conflict is certainly different in many respects. How different is a wonderful subject for a historian—or in this case, perhaps a pathologist.

    This book is a well-documented postmortem, not a compelling operational history. Contrary to the publisher’s dust jacket, “gripping accounts of battle” are not this book’s real strength. Ultimately, Fiasco relentlessly documents a badly flawed policy decision, inappropriate operational planning, and counterproductive tactics. Most Marines will be more comfortable with Bing West and MajGen Ray L. Smith’s The March Up (Bantam, 2003) and its riveting narrative about I MEF’s blitzkrieg in Mesopotamia. Fiasco will appeal primarily to military professionals and students of national security affairs who want to look past the battles and see how these are matched to policy aims and desired effects. Look elsewhere for what military force actually achieved under heroic conditions. If you want to find out how senior policymakers deluded themselves with an inexplicable paradox of worst-case threat scenarios and best-case planning assumptions, delve deeply into this remarkable book.

    LtCol Hoffman, a frequent contributor to MCG, is a Research Fellow, Center for Emerging Threats and Opportunities, Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory, Quantico.

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