Pakistani politics (catch all)

[redbullets]

Mainstream media is saying that she was killed. Earlier report was from a press statement by her husband saying she was critically injured.

[jcustis]

Can anyone point me to any products (perhaps an NIE of sorts) that details Pakistan's nuclear capabilities? I'm thinking that despite hearing a lot about it, I don't know crap about yield, packaging, or delivery vehicles in the inventory.

[MattC86]

. . .better than nothing. I read a CRS report on it last summer when I worked in Congress, I just found it online from another source:

"Indian and Pakistani Nuclear Weapons" http://www.ndu.edu/library/docs/crs/...37_17feb05.pdf

Matt

[jcustis]

Gracias.

[tequila]

With Bhutto gone, one wonders exactly how Washington will react. The policy of using Bhutto and elections as a cloak of legitimacy for Musharraf was already largely wrecked by Bhutto and Musharraf being unable to come to terms, leading directly to the declaration of the SoE and the movement of Bhutto into opposition. Now with Bhutto dead, this strategy is completely gone --- what are American options? Back Musharraf to the hilt? Who else?

Some very heavy sweating going on in McLean, Foggy Bottom, and the White House right now.

[MattC86]

With Bhutto gone, one wonders exactly how Washington will react. The policy of using Bhutto and elections as a cloak of legitimacy for Musharraf was already largely wrecked by Bhutto and Musharraf being unable to come to terms, leading directly to the declaration of the SoE and the movement of Bhutto into opposition. Now with Bhutto dead, this strategy is completely gone --- what are American options? Back Musharraf to the hilt? Who else?

Some very heavy sweating going on in McLean, Foggy Bottom, and the White House right now.

Question for you, Tequila. Do you think Washington has any other options? We were wary of Bhutto in large part because of her poor relationship with Pakistani security services, and what we really seem to be cultivating is the cooperation of the security services, and particularly trying to keep the ISI out of bed with the extremists. I feel like the cooperation with Bhutto was a veneer of supporting legitimate democracy - and as you said - was a ploy for Musharraf's legitimacy.

A few months ago an author in Foreign Affairs wrote that the ISI and others in the security services maintain their ties with fundamentalist groups not for ideological reasons but because they think eventually the US will side with India and bail on Pakistan. They're hedging their bets, essentially. And so the solution for the US, instead of embargoing F-16s and such to try to force democracy, is to continue to support Musharraf and the security services while gently pushing towards democracy.

Given that, what other options do we have? I don't know that this changes Washington's policy at all, given that even when espousing cooperation, we supported Musharraf.

Matt

[jcustis]

This is not an original question as I read the bits on another board. Am I, however, the only one who sees some parallels with the Shah of Iran, who also at one point had a handle on his military?

Are there things to be learned from his capitulation that can help folks at Foggy Bottom avoid repeating history? Or are these issues to much a matter of apples-oranges?

[davidbfpo]

For the West, principally the USA & UK, Ms Bhutto's murder is a loss and for Pakistan makes the forthcoming national parliamentary elections even more difficult to envisage as a contest for popular support. I remain convinced the West needs to see how the Pakistani electorate vote - before making any long-term decisions.

For Pakistanis their focus will be on how the Army react, to the murder and holding the elections in January 2008.

Other nations have a vital interest in Pakistan's future. China is Pakistan's longstanding ally and it was reported that when the Red Mosque militants seized a van of Chinese workers that was "the straw that broke the camel's back". Then there is India, who clearly wants stability and restrictions on cross-border activity in Kashmir.

We tend to overlook the Saudi influence, with their clear support for Nawaz Sharif and their reported brokering of political deals. How much does real politic influence Saudi policy compared to religion? I assume India's growing economy relies on Saudi oil supplies too. Anyone seen a good analysis of the Saudi factor?

Do not overlook that the Rawlpindi rally was necessary to keep Ms Bhutto in the public eye, as restrictions remain on local press & TV reporting.

Given the previous attack on Ms Bhutto and the risk with any public appearance her personal security seems odd. From the photos I've seen the public was allowed too close, why did she emerge from the sunroof to wave etc at people outside the venue?

What happens in the more militant areas will be interesting to watch. Will the Pakistani Taleban celebrate publically, will a militant group claim responsibility for the murder? Any public celebration or claim in NWFP or FATA could provide Musharraf with a public event to base a national security / stabilization campaign instead of the usual "stop & go".

Pakistan needs to see the Pakistani Army and locally recruited forces out of their forts and roadblock bunkers. With a propaganda campaign similar to "This murder was wrong and all Pakistan condemns it. Where do you stand?"

The NWFP, FATA and Baluchistan have a small population compared to the rest of the country. The religious parties were strongest in those areas.

I am not fearful about the security of Pakistani nuclear weapons, internal Army authority and discipline is not an issue (very different from confronting militants in the FATA often by locally recruited forces). Those who call for a SF raid - as seen in some comments - are crazy.

What impact upon Pakistani women will the murder have? I simply do not know, it is a male dominated society and very few, if any women appear in film footage of Bhutto's rallies. The western orientated class is tiny, mainly middle class professionals in the cities.

For those called into work today, as others suggest, I'd go home. The decisions necessary remain in Pakistan and not Foggy Bottom or Whitehall. If anything on reflection Ms Bhutto's murder reduces any immediate and short term Western influence.

davidbfpo