Quote Originally Posted by Galrahn View Post
It isn't really a prediction as it is an observation. All indications point to Iran appearing to be remarkably patient.

My observations on the particulars of what we have heard have been shaping my perspective. It is theory, I do not have 'special insight' on this subject.

1st, it was stated in the NIE that the Iranians stopped working on thier weapon program in 2003. Many people jumped on this information to imply the Iraq invasion was the reason Iran ceased its weapon program.

However, it was also in 2003 that the IAEA got wind of the AQ Khan connection, we just didn't hear about it publicly until 2004. From what we gathered from the Lybians, AQ Khan delivered just about all the technical knowledge needed for weaponization, meaning Iran could afford to suspend military research at that time having achieved all discoveries necessary until such tmie they were in possession of the physical capabilities.

I think that you're conflating what the Khan network sold to Libya with what it sold to Iran. From the evidence I've read here and here, Iran only purchased old P1s and plans for P2 centerfuges. Eventually, Iran will cooperate with the IAEA and we'll know for sure what the state of those centerfuges are. My guess is that the P1's are a mess, and the P2's were never successfully built.