The first potential outcome discerned by Kaplan, to be honest, sounds almost too good to be true. We'd all sure take if we could get it, but somehow it just seems a little too far-fetched to be well, realistic.
When an Iraqi Government minister, a Shi'a, went on TV last week or the week before that and demanded that the Sunni Militias operating alongside the US be reduced in strength by 80%, turn in their arms, and the remaining 20% be incorporated directly into the Iraqi security forces, I couldn't help but fear that this may have been the opening shot in one of Kaplan's less pleasant potential outcomes. The Shi'a in the Government know perfectly well that the Sunni are fearful of Shi'a control of most of the security forces, and especially Shi'a militia infiltration of said. To demand the effective disarmament of the Sunnis is just going to stoke the latter's fears and suspicions. A bad, bad move. And meanwhile US options, especially military ones, are and over the coming several months will become, increasingly constrained and less potent.
Now that the First Phase of the Insurgency/Civil War appears to be "culminating", the potential for a full-fledged Civil War between somewhat more "conventional/regular" forces, operating from much more clearly Sunni- or Shi'a-controlled regions and districts, could just be a few months and political missteps away. Once the US drawdown has really taken hold by next summer or so, the window of opportunity for a rather more decisive match between the players in Iraq will open and progessively widen. Until then, the players may bide their time, consolidate their positions, and make preparations for the decisive campaigns that may lie ahead.
Very good article you posted for us, Gian.
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