Quote Originally Posted by JeffC View Post
Well, the difference is that we know for sure that all of the numbers went up: recruitment, terrorist acts, number of cells operating in other countries - post-2003 invasion. Since that's a known fact, and the alternative that you expressed is a hypothetical, it would seem prudent to at least examine that increase as a variable in any analysis of our military strategy.
a highly likely one but in either case, it's irrelevant, we are where we are and where we are is at a point where the impact of any or no increase or even had (or has?) there been a decrease -- and we don't; cannot, have true numbers -- will have no real strategic impact. The issue 'strategically' (to misuse the word) is the intention of said population and the numbers are relatively immaterial. Their resolution is only a slightly more relevant issue as that will almost certainly vary from person to person on a daily basis -- as will the total numbers of adherents for that matter...

The intent of the truly dedicated is important but the number of those and their resolution is almost tangential.

They are out there, there aren't all that many but those who are true believers will be intent on doing the west in general and us in particular harm in any way they can. That was a given 50 years ago, ten years ago and will be ten and even 50 years in the future. The only way to mitigate their potential for harm is to make it far more costly. That is very difficult to do with those who are willing to die for their cause but it is not impossible. It will take two to three generations as opposed to five or six had we simply waited, restricted ourselves to 'containment' (though I'm unsure how you contain an amorphous group of non-state actors) and 'diplomacy.'

We know all those numbers went up -- we also know that successes in deterring recruitment, short circuiting terrorist acts, and identification and disruption of the greater number of cells operating in other countries have been achieved and that those successes are growing. They have not really had a good year in spite of the increases you posit and I'm quite sure that will continue to be the case. That's why I say those pluses are unimportant.