From CRG, 17 Aug 06:
...US military authorities in the capital Baghdad on 17 August released data showing that the number of actual or attempted roadside bomb attacks against US and Iraqi forces had doubled from 1,454 in January to 2,625 in July. Attacks using mortars, RPGs and small-arms fire also increased.

The increase indicates that the Sunni Arab insurgency is growing in strength at a time when increased sectarian violence has eroded the authority of the Shia-dominated central government. Despite periodic military successes, the government's authority over Sunni Arabs may collapse in many areas in the west and north-west of the country and insurgent groups and their affiliated tribal supporters may increasingly come to fill the resulting power vacuum. This will increase instability and security risks in these areas until a dominant local actor emerges.

Many Sunni Arabs view the predominantly Shia Arab and Kurdish security forces with distrust, a sentiment that has been reinforced by increasing sectarian attacks against Sunni Arabs by Shia militia members linked to the security forces. As a result, Sunni insurgents have been able to attract sufficient support from tribes and young people to step up their recruitment, intelligence and logistics operations. In Baghdad, a government security clampdown announced in June met with little success, and US and Iraqi troop reinforcements were called in to launch a new security campaign.

The data reveals a shift in insurgent targeting patterns; 70% of attacks between January and July were aimed at US forces compared with almost 85% in the previous year. Of the remaining 30%, 20% targeted the Iraqi security forces, compared with just 9% in 2005, while 10% targeted Iraqi civilians compared with 5% a year earlier. The data uses roadside bombs as a barometer of insurgent activity because they require a support network including a bomb-maker, financiers, and operatives to carry out...