A quick response.

Regardless of the poll results and our opinions the fact remains that none of us have a crystal ball that can accurately predict the future will bring and what our future national interests will be at time. Unfortunately for us the “through, by and with” strategy, while always the desired option is not always a feasible option since large parts of the world remain poorly governed or non-governed, and a minimalist approach will not work.

The through, by and with approach worked in Greece and numerous other locations, but there is a big difference between the approach and resources required for a Greece or El Salvador scenario where our strategy was to prop up a struggling government versus the strategy of overthrowing a regime and standing up a government from scratch, or simply trying to stand up a government from scratch as we sort of attempted in Somalia. The first scenario is probably a legitimate small war, while the second scenario is a major effort when it comes to national resources and national will, and should not be approached as a small war.

Will there be another Iraq or Afghanistan? I would guess that almost certainly there will be, and it is imperative we continue to address the short falls in our doctrine and interagency approach so we are better prepared to deal with the situation when it is thrust upon us.

I am beginning to think we are all missing the boat when it comes to COIN, or irregular warfare, with our two approaches: attrition and hearts and minds (by fixing local government). After recently reading the declassified version of Ambassador Lodge’s letter to the President regarding the Vietnam conflict posted elsewhere on the SWJ, I was moved by his comments that we need to focus our efforts more on organizing the Vietnamese society to resist the insurgency. Assuming that as an Ambassador he chose his words very carefully, I find it insightful that he focused on the society instead of the government. Let’s face it, there are some governments we can’t fix, they simply don’t have the desire to change, and we don’t have the carrots and sticks to make them change, so can we more effectively focus on empowering the society instead of a corrupt and / or ineffective government?