It's not a bad theory, but what happens when a spoke or two is removed. As you say, a spider runs several spokes out to various points and then begins connecting them into a web. If I come along early enough, I can simply remove two points of contact and the rest is swinging in the breeze. The spider has expended much energy with no results and now needs to begin again.

Move this into the COIN world and I see two or three lines of communication broken and instead of a web swinging in the breeze, there is a local population left hanging. While we established the "spoke" through their area, we established contact and perhaps instilled some hope. Once that spoke is broken, they've lost that hope. Have we then created more damage than waiting for an ink-blot?

I see the spoke as being potentially weak; perhaps too weak to defend against a serious effort. The ink-blot, however, spreads and has the ever increasing center to support the edges where the bad guys are. The spokes could be out there all alone.