I was just thinking about all this when Tom posted (and this is a short post of my own, since I need to run to teach class).
It remains to be seen whether Ki-moon, Annan, and the AU can move the parties to a political agreement that would deescalate the current situation, but I think this is a clear case where the oft-maligned UN and AU have potential for conflict prevention (or, more accurately, conflict deescalation) that others don't.
The rest of the international community has been publicly supportive, but one hopes that local embassies and HQS can coordinate an effective common front to support the primary mediators. This was done well in support of the peace process in Mozambique in 1992-94, and done poorly--and with tragic consequences--in Angola in 1992 and Rwanda prior to the genocide.
Also, there is some discussion of the Kenya crisis and AFRICOM on Abu Muqawama.
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