Most of the literature on the cost of the Iraq War, Afghan War, and the war on terrorism focuses on the burden it places on the federal budget and the US economy. These are very real issues, but they also have deflected attention from another key issue: whether the war in Afghanistan is being properly funded and being given the resources necessary to win.
Figure 1 provides a rough picture of the steady growth in Taliban-HiG-Haqqani and Al Qa’ida threat activity and the consequent impact on US casualties. It reflects the fact that the situation has now deteriorated steadily for more than five years, an assessment the US intelligence community has agreed to in its latest analysis of the war. The NATO commander in Afghanistan, General David McKiernan has noted that violence was at least 30% higher in September 2008 than in September 2007, and was driven by three factors:
- The insurgents have adapted their tactics to smaller scale IEDS and ambush type attacks- more events.
- The US and NATO/ISAF have greater presence, and therefore greater contact with the insurgency.
- A deteriorating condition in these tribal areas of Pakistan. More drugs and insurgents are being sent over the border.
A new CSIS briefing -
Losing The Afghan-Pakistan War? The Rising Threat - tells this story in more depth, and how it is reflected in growing Afghan and allied casualties. UN and declassified US intelligence maps that show the steady expansion of threat influence and the regions that are unsafe for aid workers. Other data show how Afghan drug growing has steadily moved south and become a major source of financing for the Taliban and other insurgent movements.
Work by Seth G. Jones, a leading Rand analyst, has shown how insurgent groups like the Taliban, Haqqani Network, Gulbuddin Hakmayer’s Hezb-i-Islami (HIG); Al Qa’ida; and affiliated groups in Pakistan have formed three fronts in Northeastern, Southeastern, and Southern Afghanistan that are linked by what he calls ―a complex adaptive system‖ of loosely cooperating groups that act as a distributed and constantly adapting network.ii At the same time, the UN and other assessments summarized in the CSIS briefing show that the Taliban and other groups have steadily expanded there presence and influence in the country side, particularly in the many areas where NATO/ISAF and the Afghan government cannot provide either security or governance. These now include substantial areas in central Afghanistan, in and around the capital, and growing pockets in the north and west.....
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