Everything you say is true.
"1. Left to their own devices and without any checks on them (and you cannot say there are any substantive checks on SR profiles save keep it within the 49/51 distro mandated by OPMS XXI) people will pick people like themselves.

2. If they can't pick someone like themselves they'll pick someone who is less then themselves (no threat --- the dwarves)

3. The last thing people will do is pick people who are not like themselves and represent a threat. There be Giants!
You started off with the crux of it; which is great -- a lot of folks don't recognize how significant a problem those points are. In fact, I agree they are the most significant problem; that and jobs at HRC, a driver of more import than many know. Shy Meyer tried to kill the HRC Mafia and they trooped up on the Hill and they won; they outlasted Meyer and went right back to business as usual.

One of the better Generals I ever knew was on a roll one day and told me that the basic problem was that we'd made the system too competitive. He Said. "All Generals are mediocre -- I'm mediocre. If you aren't mediocre your contemporaries or their godfathers will kill you on the way up..." He'd had to tell his just entering OBC son to be good but not too good. That bothered him.

He and another guy fought the 49/51 block at the time of issue but to no avail (though I thought it had been lifted for CPT and below? I hung up my tree suit in '77 and retired from my DAC job 12 years ago, I'm beyond outa touch ). The other guy had as a COL been the Dir of OPD in the early 70s and he and the then XO came up with an OER that had all the rating chain names and signatures on the reverse and which the Board would not see -- it got rave reviews as it circulated in the building until it hit the first GO reviewer. Where it died...

So I hear you and know this is the truth:
"If the Army want's to really change then all conversation should begin and end with a discussion of OPMS and DOPMA. Otherwise we are just merely rearranging the furniture.If the Army want's to really change then all conversation should begin and end with a discussion of OPMS and DOPMA. Otherwise we are just merely rearranging the furniture."
Sad but accurate. As I acknowledged earlier that's the ol' big pole. Still, we both know frontal assaults are a bad idea. Flanking is in order. That or trap some Beavers and put 'em to work on that pole...
"Ken, I hear you and I'm not saying that training can't fix things....given enough time.....but that is the rub.....time. Cultures cannot be created quickly..."
Totally true this one has been building for over 200 years and in its current form, since the end of WW II. It will be exceedingly difficult to turn around. It will also take time. I mentioned the LTs to COLs -- it'll, I think, take two iterations of that to achieve marginal success in changing the culture (unless we have a big war and someone finds another Saint George -- difficult in this age).
"... And the culture of head down political risk aversion which is fostered by the OER is not one to be overturned by training..."
I agree, in my view it'll take a minor internal revolt; a mass exodus; or an exceptionally strong CofS,A pulled up a couple of stars. The latter is an admittedly unlikely prospect, the other two are, unfortunately, more likely.

Much of this as you know is thanks to Congress which is a BIG part of the problem and which fostered DOPMA to preclude the Armed Forces from being 'unfair' to anyone and give everyone an 'equal' shot at the gold ring. They did what legislators are too prone to do, they tried to guarantee equality of outcome when what was needed was equality of opportunity
"...Historically when the Army could not reorganize itself internally in order to cope with a new threat, it either decided to, or more often had someone outside decide for them on the creation of a new function within the Army in order to deal with the problem. Special Forces is one such example. Thus their current position of being able to do this in house without functional specialization defies their history and also ignores the parochialism the branches and respective communities (heavy, light, and SOF) have exerted over time."
Having been on SB Hill in another lifetime shortly after the birth and before there was a Beanie, I hear that. The same mission argument was around then. With a serving son, I get random unclas updates from time to time. Not all that much change. Like you said, the culture is old and deeply embedded.

The problem is that the "new threat" seen by the pachyderms is rarely the evul enema -- it is any threat to the institution; they will put aside branch and personal squabbles to repel boarders in a heartbeat. Still, most of 'em I've met, though constrained by the system they grew up in, generally mean well. They will select those in their own image and conformity is the guiding mantra as you say. What remains to be seen is whether they will act on the realization that I suspect most have deep in their minds -- all today is not well in the institution and some changes will HAVE to be made. Many will try to keep those changes to an absolute minimum, no question. You may be right and the minimalists will win -- but I'm a hopeless optimist; there's gotta be a Pony in there somewhere...