Something for everyone.

Just one minor point: COIN in a given nation is in fact the Operational level of war, ergo no success in such a an operation can or could be by itself a Strategic success. Even if it could, that 'success' could not be determined until the operations ceased, having failed or succeeded.

The Strategic issue is the total content of the Long War (or whatever name one wants to apply to the Strategy) and Iraq is merely the most visible but not necessarily the most important part of that Strategy. That comment also applies to an extent to Afghanistan, both are simply pieces of the picture, not the whole puzzle. Thus there will be no determination of success or failure of the Strategy until more pieces -- and more than those two --fall in place and the picture emerges.

I suspect that will take another 15 years or so, perhaps a bit longer. So all impatient folks are going to get really frazzled and upset. And that's okay...