Quote Originally Posted by Hacksaw View Post
As usual Rob has posted another of his intellectual hairballs that generates so much intellectual activity that it is nearly impossible to keep up and still do your job .
Glad I'm not the only one.

1. I also have to jump on the stability doesn't automatically equal less terrorism bandwagon. Furthermore, I don't think our objective is stability. Iraq was stable before we invaded. If dividing Iraq into three countries were proven to make the situation more stable, this administration wouldn't do it. There is wide consensus that a Palestinian state would make the entire region more stable. We've had over 50 years to make one happen. We haven't done it.

2. I believe that the words/actions dynamic (which I've seen Rob mention a couple of times, so I'll address it even though it is a bit of topic) in the Middle East is very simple. We support Israel unconditionally: always have and probably always will. Anything we're in favor of will be perceived - correctly - as being good for Israel. Anyone who believes that whatever is good for Israel is bad for the Arabs - which probably includes most Arabs - is not only never going to believe that we want to help them, they'll always believe that we're going to hurt them. No matter what we do or say.

3. Which brings me to AQ. Their Achilles heel is recruiting. (Blowing up your own members is obviously unsustainable unless you can replace the old mules with fresh meat.) The Koran says that Muslims have a religious obligation to fight against anyone who attacks Islam. Anyone who takes that obligation seriously (fundamentalists) is going to become a terrorist if they think that we're at war with Islam. UBL really didn't care about the Palestinians, but photos from Gaza bring in fresh recruits better than just about anything. He repeatedly uses the term "Zionists and crusaders" to make our support of Israel like a war against Islam.)

4. A rule of advertising. You don't try to change people's beliefs, you leverage them. (If people believe that the planet getting warmer is bad, you don't try to change that. Instead you leverage their belief that change isn't bad. As a spin doctor you stop talking about climate warming and start talking about climate change.) As a spin doctor for the other side you realize that people believe that mankind shouldn't fool around with nature and you start talking about "man made climate change."

5. Therefore, indirect approaches that can work in the long war are:

a) convincing people that we only hate the Palestinians, but not Muslims. Although I don't think any president would ever be so blunt, and such a statement would undoubtedly cause many other problems.

b) convincing potential recruits that AQ is blowing up more Muslims than "zionists and crusaders." This one has the advantage of being true, so it's a relatively easy sell. On the other hand, it kind of forces UBL to respond by attacking the homeland, so it only works if we simultaneously kill everyone who is planning and leading the attacks.

6. Nothing personal Rob, because I know you've been tasked with BPC - and I know you'll do an excellent job - but BCP is highly likely to be viewed as building capacity to "wage war on Islam" by those who are most likely to blow themselves up, so there is at least a theoretical possibility it'll make the "long war" tougher not easier.