Bill Lind's Nightmare Scenario

[Cavguy]

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I find this pretty implausible, and I know a lot of folks on here are not Lind fans, but does anyone think this could actually happen?

No.

It's packed with erroneous assumptions treated as fact. Even if by some miracle the Iranians massed an assault into south Iraq, Jordan would likely open its roads to supply our forces as a bulwark against Iran, and probably Turkey would as well, at least if they want their foreign aid. None of those countries want an Iranian dominated ME. The Saudis wouldn't sit idly by as well.

That, and the idea that the Army is somehow utterly incapable of getting together to provide a good fight. And what Hersh says above about a USAF/USN/USMC Air "highway of death". Oh yeah, that Iranian Air force will fight us to a standstill. Where does he get that an army that couldn't overcome Iraq in 8 years (and we all saw how tough THAT army was against the USA) would be able to operationally outmaneuver and oufight our force, even with it having become more "COIN" centric. The Iranians are not the German General Staff by any stretch.

What units don’t get overrun by Iranian armor or Shiite militia end up in the Baghdad Kessel.

I've been assaulted by thousands of Shiite militia. It didn't work out well for them. They haven't been able to overrun anybody, or even inflict serious casualties. Our PUC for the Sadr Rebellion credits my unit with over 1500 militiamen killed. We lost seven soldiers. They didn't even knock out one of our M1's. And don't get me started on "Iranian Armor" overruning us.