Boot proves that he belongs at Commentary magazine - his essay is detached from reality in the finest neoconservative tradition.
First, the genocide red flag is waved. Boot of course does not specify exactly who this genocide's perpetrators or victims are, because it's quite difficult to construct a plausible genocide in Iraq that wouldn't involve our current "partners", the Iraqi Shiite-dominated government, as the main perpetrator upon the smaller Sunni population. Of course the actual probability of said genocide is quite low, given that neither Shia nor Sunni can cobble together anything resembling a unified front, much less a power capable of inflicting an organized genocide upon any other group (the current fumbling in Basra provides all the evidence necessary).
Only someone like Boot could actually believe the ISF is a non-sectarian national institution now. Neighboring countries are intervening now, but none including Turkey possess the conventional force capability to intervene decisively in the ongoing struggle nor, given the coalition's travails, the requisite stupidity to charge blindly into the briar patch."If Coalition forces were withdrawn rapidly ... we judge that the ISF [Iraqi Security Forces] would be unlikely to survive as a non-sectarian national institution; neighboring countries -- invited by Iraqi factions or unilaterally -- might intervene openly in the conflict; massive civilian casualties and forced population displacement would be probable; AQI [al-Qaeda in Iraq] would attempt to use parts of the country -- particularly al-Anbar province -- to plan increased attacks in and outside of Iraq; and spiraling violence and political disarray in Iraq... could prompt Turkey to launch a military incursion."
Massive civilian casualties and forced population displacement have already occurred under the coalition's watch. The main drivers of this are Iraqi political and sectarian issues that the coalition can temporarily freeze but cannot solve. AQI's survival is also, to a large extent, out of the coalition's hands and depends largely on Sunni needs and AQI capability at the time. Turkey has already launched a military incursion, of course, and the presence of coalition forces did nothing to deter them.
Uh, right. How many tens of thousands of those Iraqis were shooting at American troops 3 months ago? Iraq is not Vietnam. There are no NLF Main Force regiments or NVA tank divisions prepping to break down the gates to the embassy. And some of our main "allies" in Iraq just visited Iran to plead with the IRGC to intercede in their latest power struggle. Somehow most of our "allies" will get along okay without us.An even more important sign of progress is the willingness of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis to take up arms to fight Sunni and Shiite terrorists alongside American troops. Imagine their fate if we suddenly exit. I, for one, hope that we do not betray our allies in Iraq as we did in Southeast Asia.
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