I agree with Ken, but if it's impossible to predict the outcome of kinetic operations, how can we stage effective kinetic operations?

Quote Originally Posted by Ron Humphrey View Post
1- As many have said central Govt had to stand up in some way at some point
Maybe. Maybe diplomacy would've been a better option. Some say Iran was "the big winner" because of their use of diplomacy. I don't know of that's true, but it certainly demonstrates the potential power of diplomacy in an "analogue" environment.

Quote Originally Posted by Ron Humphrey View Post
4- If I know you will run when I confront you does that mean I shouldn't bother confronting you or does it maybe mean I should consider first your lines of retreat
Someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that the correct answer is that you should control the population so that my movement can't recruit replacements after I'm dead. (We all know that I'd better get my affairs in order long before you come after me. )