Quote Originally Posted by Rank amateur View Post
I agree with Ken, but if it's impossible to predict the outcome of kinetic operations, how can we stage effective kinetic operations?
Ken didn't say it was impossible. He did imply it could be difficult because sometimes it is; generally not that difficult to predict -- I'd suggest that it is far easier to predict if you're a disinterested observer than a participant; sometimes the participants get a little to busy to do predictive stuff...

Hacksaw did a far better job of addressing the issue just above than I ever would. As he said, you gotta embrace complexity, I keep saying the ME is complicated and it, more so than here -- but even here, actions and interactions between humans are far too complex for simplistic tags and generalizations. All humans are analog.
Maybe. Maybe diplomacy would've been a better option. Some say Iran was "the big winner" because of their use of diplomacy. I don't know of that's true, but it certainly demonstrates the potential power of diplomacy in an "analogue" environment.
Sometimes diplomacy just doesn't work. Other times, it might work but would take too long...
Someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that the correct answer is that you should control the population so that my movement can't recruit replacements after I'm dead. (We all know that I'd better get my affairs in order long before you come after me. )
I don't think I'll correct you because you aren't 'wrong' -- I do think, however, you don't realize how terribly difficult 'controlling a population' is. There is no way short of the G. Khan model to do what you suggest.

IF -- big if -- we totally outnumbered the population in question on an order of 2:1, we might be able to exercise a great deal of control (still not total) but lacking that, you are not going to control a population unless they're are absolutely in fear of a nasty death at your hands. We ain't gonna go there. Nor should we...