Zimbabwe: 2007 till Mugabe resigns

[Tom Odom]

now we get down to waiting to see what kind of electoral rabbit Mugabe pulls out of his hat...

MDC claims it is heading for clear victory over Mugabe in Zimbabwe election

Zimbabwe's main opposition party claimed today to be heading to a clear victory over Robert Mugabe after presidential and parliamentary elections.

Official results from Saturday's only trickled out, however, prompting accusations that the veteran President was trying to fix the poll results in a desperate bid to cling to power.

With 24 of the 210 parliamentary seats so far declared by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, Mr Mugabe's Zanu-PF was level-pegging with the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), led by Morgan Tsvangirai, on 12 seats each.

No official figures were given for the presidential contest.

[Stan]

The folks at The Institute for War and Peace Reporting now claim.....

Official sources say he will claim to have won presidential poll despite clearly losing to Tsvangirai.

By Joseph Sithole in Harare (AR No. 163, 31-Mar-08)
In what can best be described as a shock result, President Robert Mugabe and his ruling ZANU-PF party are about to announce victory for Mugabe in the parliamentary and presidential elections, according to unofficial results leaked from the ZANU-PF and Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, ZEC, command centres.

But sources within the ZEC centre - newly christened the National Collation Centre - say Mugabe clearly lost the election to his opposition rival Morgan Tsvangirai, polling only 20 per cent of the vote.

...But commentators say it would be something of a miracle if Mugabe and his party had secured the victory, given more than 85 per cent unemployment, serious food shortages and a collapsed health delivery system.

Some of the ruling party’s heavyweights that have fallen include Minister of Women Affairs Oppah Muchunguri, Agriculture Minister Joseph Made, Justice, Legal and Parliamentary Affairs Minister Patrick Chinamasa, Minister of Energy and Power Development Mike Nyambuya, and Information Minister Sikhanyiso Ndlovu.

There are already reports coming from the United States saying sanctions, currently targeted at Mugabe and his close associates, would be intensified if the ballot were not free and fair. The same is likely to come from Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and other western countries.

But what is more worrying now is how Zimbabweans are going to receive the result, especially after the MDC has been saying it “has won this election beyond any reasonable doubt”.

[davidbfpo]

Key Sites for Election Updates and Commentary:

Sokwanele Civic Action Support Group http://www.sokwanele.com Has detailed updates both from Zimbabwe Election Commission(official) and Parallel Voting Tabulation (unofficial)

AllAfrica http://allafrica.com/zimbabwe
Kubatana http://www.kubatana.net
SW Radio Africa http://www.swradioafrica.com
Google Maps Mashup on Election Rigging Reports http://www.sokwanele.com/thisiszimbabwe/archives/767

[Stan]

Zimbabwe Election Support Network...

Mugabe got 41.8 percent of the vote, compared with 49.4 percent for opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. An independent, Simba Makoni, got 8 percent...

If confirmed, the monitor group's numbers would push Mugabe and Tsvangirai into a runoff vote -- something analysts have long said would consolidate opposition to the president and hasten the end of his rule. Zimbabwe election laws require that a winning candidate get more than 50 percent of the vote. The new election likely would be April 19.

[davidbfpo]

On a BBC Radio 4 interview, Martin Rupiah, ex-Zimbabwe Army colonel, now living in South Africa, commented that the slow release of the results was designed to bring out protestors out onto the street, where the loyal security forces, or certain parts of them, would crush them.

davidbfpo

[Stan]

01 Apr 2008 | The foreign ministers of seven EU member states, including the Netherlands, have called upon the Zimbabwean Electoral Commission to swiftly announce the results of the presidential election.

Foreign minister Maxime Verhagen and his counterparts from the UK, Italy, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain expressed their concerns at an informal meeting convened by French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner in Paris on Monday.

[Stan]

From CONDÉ NAST

As Americans worry about the rate of inflation exceeding 4 percent, we should consider Zimbabwe, where the inflation rate broke the shocking 100,000 percent mark and the country released a 10 million-dollar note (now valued below $4 on the black market). But Zimbabwe's currency is hardly the only one inflated beyond reason. —George Quraishi

Best before: "On or before 30 June 2008"

[Stan]

All Africa

A deal is being negotiated in Zimbabwe in which President Robert Mugabe would step down after being in power for nearly 28 years, news agencies reported Tuesday.

Business Day

IF YOU have been able to make sense of what is being said about tomorrow’s elections in Zimbabwe, you deserve to win the lottery this weekend. I confess that I lack the intellectual tools to analyse an election that is not going to be free...

Mugabe ‘buys votes’ with cars for doctors

facing the toughest election battle of his 28 years in power, handed out hundreds of cars to doctors yesterday in what opponents said was more blatant vote-buying.

The main opposition group said it had uncovered more evidence that Mugabe planned to rig Saturday’s presidential election...

Zimbabwe parties deny deal on Mugabe exit

HARARE (Reuters) - Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai and the Zimbabwean government both strongly denied on Tuesday that they were in talks to arrange the resignation of veteran President Robert Mugabe after Saturday's election.

"There is no discussion and this is just a speculative story," Tsvangirai said in response to media reports that Mugabe was about to step down in a deal with his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).

Earlier a U.S. State Department official, referring to the media reports, told reporters: "I know there were discussions that were going on but we will see what happens and when it happens."

[Tom Odom]

I pulled a couple of articles off the press round up from SWJ Blog. The first two are pretty much the norm. Mugabe lost but the world waits to see if he will really accept defeat. And if he does, how will he leave?

Endgame in Zimbabwe Nears - Philp and Clayton, London Times

The ruinous reign of Robert Mugabe is drawing to a close as aides work to secure him a facesaving exit after defeat at the polls.

Talks began after Mr Mugabe’s closest cohorts gathered at State House to inform him that he had not only failed to win an outright victory in the weekend’s presidential election, but was beaten into second place by his challenger.

Zimbabwe Challenger Claims Win - Robyn Dixon, Los Angeles Times
HARARE, ZIMBABWE -- Zimbabwe opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai claimed Tuesday to have defeated President Robert Mugabe in Saturday's presidential election and called on the longtime leader to respect voters' will.

In his first public appearance since the vote, Tsvangirai endorsed official results released thus far and said any talks on a smooth transition could occur only after the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission's final announcement of the tally.

This one is somewhat different in it looks at how Mugabe has stayed on so long. I loved the opening sentence concerning a "normal democracy."

A Wonder Mugabe Could Stay On - Sebastien Berger, London Daily Telegraph

In any normal democracy where most people were unemployed, inflation was running at over 100,000 per cent, and a third of the population needed food aid, the government would be voted out by a landslide at the first opportunity.

All of this, however, begs the question of what happens next if Mugabe does leave? Seems to me the classic danger of rising expectations comes into play. Can a new leader with international support turn things around quickly enough to satisfy those who will expect instant change?

Tom

[davidbfpo]

Taken from a contribution to the EBO thread:

Look at Zimbabwe briefly. The rule of law was maintained for many years after independence in 1980, although the police quickly became partisan. Now on the verge of change any new government will find the courts stacked against it, with ZANU-PF appointees. Then look wider, 3m Zimbabweans have left; on the BBC Radio 4 this morning most of them professionals, with doctors to the USA and nurses to the UK. How to get the professionals back to help reform Zimbabwe? (This paragraph copied to the Zimbabwe thread).

With far better salaries, not the weather though, how will Zimbabwe get them back from higher salaries? No, don't just say aid packages. I am aware lots of Afghan exiles have returned - from anecdote and reading around.

davidbfpo

[tequila]

I am aware lots of Afghan exiles have returned - from anecdote and reading around.

Yes, but the vast majority of Afghan exiles were not the educated elite, but rather just ordinary folks pushed into Iran and Pakistan. Iran just forced several hundred thousand to return.

[Tom Odom]

CNN is reporting that the GOZ raided opposition party headquarters as what may be part of a crackdown....


More as this develops


Tom

OK more information makes it look like the "raids" are targeting journalists so we shall see what happens.

Sources: Zimbabwe forces raid Harare hotel, 4 journalists seized
Posted: 03:00 PM ET
HARARE, Zimbabwe (CNN) — Zimbabwe security forces Thursday increased their checks on foreign reporters in Harare, raiding one hotel and seizing four unaccredited journalists, diplomatic sources and a witness at the hotel told CNN.

[Stan]

Notice how Ahmed Tejan Kabbah has suddenly gotten involved in GOZ business. With little else to do, tried and true experience in the field of being jerked from power by his own military, spared once again by either the Brits or UN, and Pres once again, the old fart is trying to sell his opinion to Mugabe. If only Mobutu was still around....

First it was a leak reported by the New Zimbabwe.
Now the foreign journalists have been arrested...no credentials...no Sierra

[Tom Odom]

Mugabe's party agrees to presidential runoff

HARARE, Zimbabwe (CNN) -- Zimbabwe's ruling party said Friday that President Robert Mugabe would be willing to face Morgan Tsvangirai in a runoff election.
The announcement was made before official results of the March 29 presidential race were announced by the Electoral Commission, which has the final say in whether a runoff will be held.

A runoff is required when neither candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote.

Zimbabwe's electoral commission was expected to release final results of last week's election Friday amid a crackdown on the opposition and media.

So there was a show of force in a limited sense and now ZANU-PF "agrees" to a run off after most say the opposition won cleanly. Expect more intimidation efforts and delays.

Tom

[Stan]

Zimbabwe Veterans March in Show of Force Against Opposition

He still manages to get his veterans fired up !

HARARE, Zimbabwe — Hundreds of veterans of Zimbabwe's guerrilla war for black rule marched through the capital Friday, silent but leaving little doubt they were out to intimidate President Robert Mugabe's political opponents.

Hmmm, were these Vets the very same that ended up with all the farm land ?

[Tom Odom]

Hmmm, were these Vets the very same that ended up with all the farm land ?

That would be an affirmative along with key ZANU party hacks. Then again Mo could always get the DSP to march, could he not? Of course when the 31st Para marched, it was called a "pillage."

[Stan]

That would be an affirmative along with key ZANU party hacks. Then again Mo could always get the DSP to march, could he not? Of course when the 31st Para marched, it was called a "pillage."

Indeed, Tom !
But Mo and his followers has some grandiose names like Front National pour la Liberation du Congo and Parti de la revolution Populaire (Ahem...led by Kabila)

So, is the stage was now set for the ultimate confrontation ? Unlike Zaire where in 91 France's Operation Baumier and Belgian Blue Beam together with...

...wait for it...

General Mahale's fanatically loyal troops of the Service d’Action et de Renseignement Militaire ...ran the 31st and (cough) Chinese-trained (ahem) elite 41st commandos (mutineers) outta Dodge.

Will the Brits be coming or do we have to once again fly in C-141s

[davidbfpo]

Will the Brits be coming or do we have to once again fly in C-141s?

Not a hope in hell the UK will intervene, nor the Commonwealth, nor South Africa. As for the C141 for evacuation of foreign nationals, how many are left and the road south is open. I doubt if either Mugabe or his successor would welcome C141 anyway.

davidbfpo

[Stan]

Not a hope in hell the UK will intervene, nor the Commonwealth, nor South Africa. As for the C141 for evacuation of foreign nationals, how many are left and the road south is open. I doubt if either Mugabe or his successor would welcome C141 anyway.

davidbfpo

David,
I was hinting towards airlifting intervention forces (para commandos) with the 141s much like Zaire in the 70s and 90s We could work on permission from Mugabe slightly later.

Of course Zaire's airport was literally dysfunctional due in larger part to a 'self evacuation' by airport personnel, so the para commandos jumped in and maintained security and operations for military aircraft. The brunt of the evacuations took place with ferries into Brazzaville.

Evacuating tens of thousands of foreigners in Zimbabwe will be a daunting logistical problem and only the US has heavy military airlift for say a brigade

With Zanu-PF supporting a run-off and calling for recounts for 16 parliamentary seats, there's little left to imagine happening.

BTW, you're correct about the availability of Starlifters...I think the last flight was in 2006 following the evacuation of New Orleans and Gulf Coast residents displaced by Hurricane Katrina.

Regards, Stan

[davidbfpo]

=Stan;44056]David,
I was hinting towards airlifting intervention forces (para commandos) with the 141s much like Zaire in the 70s and 90s We could work on permission from Mugabe slightly later.

Stan,

Thanks for the clarification. I still cannot imagine US or any Western nation intervening in Zimbabwe.

OK thinking about intervention a little more, only the USA could do it alone and no-one is likely to be a willing partner.

The only people who will decide Zimbabwe's future are Zimbabweans in Zimbabwe; just like in 1965 and the so-called War of Liberation (I am mindful of not entering the debate over how Rhodesia ended and Zimbabwe started.

davidbfpo