Nepal (catch all)
Moderator's Note
This thread was called Nepal: Maoist Democracy coming soon? and has now been changed to Nepal (catch all) (ends).
Nepal's Maoists gain first seats
The Maoists have won four out of the seven seats already declared, election officials say.
But they are also ahead in 56 out of 102 seats whose partial results are coming through as the count proceeds
Last edited by davidbfpo; 10-26-2013 at 06:34 PM. Reason: Add Mod's note
Talk about a fundamental contradiction in terms. It is practically impossible to see any good coming from a Maoist electoral victory in Nepal.
For that matter Maoist activities seem to really be on the upswing in Bhutan and North-East India as well in recent years and especially months. I am tempted to look for patterns here; not connections per se, just patterns.
The Economist, 14 Apr 08: Maoists Take the Lead
Nepal's Maoists, who until two years ago were a vicious rebel party to a decade-long civil war, look likely to have won a general election. Of 186 seats declared on Monday April 14th the Maoists had won 103. A complicated electoral system mixing direct elections with proportional representation makes the overall complexion of the impending 601-seat assembly still hard to predict. But the Maoists may have won an outright majority.....
....An outright victory for the Maoists would be a nightmare for India. Plagued by a Maoist insurgency of its own, India until recently backed Nepal’s blundering King Gyanendra, who tried to crush the Maoists in the field. India forsook the king after he seized power in 2005. And it played an important part in brokering the peace process after his withdrawal from power following street protests the next year....
Maoist Insurgency
Three years ago, I talked to retired Colonel living in Nepal. From what I gathered from him, if ever there was an insurgency that could have been quickly and easily defeated, it was this one. It was almost as if the Government didn't want to defeat them.
I am not so up on the nuances of Nepalese politics, but my I am pretty sure that no COIN doctrine was applied as we would understand The Nepalese Government clearly didn't act, in any meaningful way, but rather blundered despite a wealth of opportunities to do otherwise.
I'd be extremely interested to know anymore detail.
Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"
- The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
- If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition
Well, hosted right here in our library is the USAWC paper The Maoist Insurgency in Nepal, 1996-2001.Originally Posted by William F. Owen
The International Crisis Group has published quite a bit of good detail on the situation over the past few years. On their Nepal archive page you can find links to all of'em, if you have the time to go through them as backgrounders.
Jane's Intelligence Review has also published a few interesting pieces on the insurgency (a good one a couple of years back on the Maoist's use of IEDs) unfortunately, they're subscriber access only.
Three years ago, I talked to retired Colonel living in Nepal. From what I gathered from him, if ever there was an insurgency that could have been quickly and easily defeated,It is interesting to know that the retired Colonel from Nepal felt that insurgency in Nepal could be eliminated quickly and easily.Three years ago, I talked to retired Colonel living in Nepal. From what I gathered from him, if ever there was an insurgency that could have been quickly and easily defeated,
Obviously, he would have inputs for this belief and one would surely desire to know what inputs led him to this conclusion.
On the other hand, Nepal theoretically has all the ingredients for a successful insurgency. And experience including mine, indicates that once an insurgency takes root, it is indeed well nigh impossible to defeat it, especially when external elements in all its facet play a role. And in terrain like in India and Nepal with similar economic, political and social backgrounds.
The present King, I believe, is actually hated since he is imperious and appears to have schemed to ensure that democracy does not succeed. His ruthless use of the Army is well known as is the loyalty of the Army to him. It is believed that the higher ranks are staffed by people screened for the loyalty to the monarchy. This I learnt from the many Nepalese who work in India and in the Indian Army in various economic levels of society. His son, Crown Prince Paras' activities including running over a popular singer has also made him a disliked figure. There are also alleged corruption charges against the monarchy as also the belief that the current King played a role in the massacre of the last King's family and this is widely believed.
In short, the monarchy which should have been the binding factor since he is taken as the incarnate of the Hindu God, Vishnu, was instead reviled. It is also a fact, that Nepali, Maoist or otherwise, is deeply religious in nature.
The infrastructure and the economy were barely sustainable. Yet the aspiration was high given the innumerably Nepalis who work in India, including in the Indian Army (a large majority have settled down in India too!) and who show dissatisfaction when home given the vast difference in the lifestyle and visible economic disparity of India and Nepal.
In addition, there is said to be a nexus with the Indian Maoists (who are of serious concern to India's security) and the spread of ‘revolutionary’ thoughts is believed to be enhanced as the Communist Chinese have about 69 projects in Nepal. Neighbouring West Bengal in India has been a Communist ruled State for over 23 years and the influence of these cadres cannot be ruled out. Therefore, the spread of radical political thought in a semi backward population was possible.
Lastly the terrain, mountainous and harsh with population far and between is ideal country for guerrilla activities.
As I see it, insurgency was coming and it came, even if none wanted to address the issue seriously.
Insurgency came and it has been squashed by the ballot. This is a good sign since the ‘face’ of the insurgent and their actions will be ‘overground’ and can be addressed in a democratic manner within and without Nepal.
Had the insurgency taken root, it may have been difficult to control. But ofcourse, I am not aware of the inputs that the Colonel of Nepal has, which may prove my surmise a trifle off course.
Of course, it is difficult to state if the Govt of Nepal seriously addressed the insurgency. Prima facie, whatever inputs are in the public domain, indicates that they did!
Welcome
I for one am looking forward to having a Maoist Democracy if - as they claim - they wish to maintain multi-party democracy. This should be an interesting democratic experiment and I look forward to seeing how they adapt Maoism. I will be even more interested in seeing how they fair when they come up fro re-election after the Nepalese have found out what living in a communist state means. They seem keen to stop the supply of Gurkas but claim they will abide by all existing arrangements.
Good luck to you and welcome to the democracies club.
Last edited by JJackson; 04-14-2008 at 07:12 PM.
This was in the early days of the Iraq insurgency, and as I remember we were discussing how you spot an insurgency in the early stages. He seemed convinced that the Nepal insurgency was very well forewarned and could have been dealt with early on.
Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"
- The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
- If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition
I think most insurgencies are pretty well forewarned.
Malaya and Kenya were. Rhodesia was. Viet Nam was. So was Iraq. In fact in the latter, aside from all the obvious signs which the Army War College study, State and the CIA predicted, Saddam himself told us. He publicly released all the prisoners in jails, told us he was going to arm the populace and put weapons and ammo everywhere and that the whole nation would arise to defeat us. Gave the two russian generals who suggested all that gold medals just before we went in. We all missed it or at least missed the total significance. Then compounded that felony by disbanding the Army and putting a bunch of political twits in the CPA -- which should never have been formed. We not only missed the warning signs, we exacerbated the problem by not knowing what to do once the battle for Baghdad was finished.
So we have a an Intel failure (in the sense of lack of force by the community in stating the indications adequately in their ceaseless effort to never be wrong...), followed by political failure, followed by military failure, leading to a full blown insurgency. Which, like most of them, will be fixed by military effort, followed by political improvements. On the Intel improvements, the jury's out...
I further suggest that all those I mention could have been avoided and rechannelled with little effort early on had not a little old fashioned hubris (or our stupid egos...) gotten in the way. I honestly have not paid that much attention to Nepal but I suspect that the same thing holds true.
If I had more time, I'd bring myself up to speed on Nepal, but....
I think it took some time for the Thais to acknowledge that the "Insurgency in the South" was a real problem. Having said that, I it being an insurgency I know pretty well, why the Thai Army doesn't even do the basics, is an utter mystery to me.
As an aside, there are several very competent ex-British Army officers living in Thailand, two of whom have offered to help. One spoke with me at the COIN Study week at their staff collage, but that was it.
The Thais know what needs to be done, but they choose not to do it. I suspect Nepal had the same symptoms.
Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"
- The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
- If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition
Could be; ways of the East are
wondrous strange. Circular logic is an intriguing thing. They usually seem to get there but the route is in my observation often unfathomable.
If the Communists "revolutionaries" are inducted into the Army, it will create serious problems.Nepal Peace Plan May Slow as Army Won't Accept Rebels (Update1)
By Jay Shankar
April 15 (Bloomberg) -- Nepal's army said it will refuse to accept former communist rebels into its ranks while they remain ``politically motivated and indoctrinated,'' a move that may delay the Himalayan nation's peace process,,,
Puspa Kamal Dahal, the leader of CPN (Maoist), on Jan. 9 accused the government of delaying the integration of his fighters into the army, saying the holdup may harm the accord that ended the civil war in which 13,000 people died.,,,
Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala said in the same month he opposes former guerrillas joining the army because he doesn't want the institution to be politicized. He suggested former rebels be recruited into a security force for industries.
Nepal faced a similar problem in 1951 when fighters of the Nepali Congress were to be integrated, Lal said. The Nepal Police was formed as a result and Nepali Congress members recruited. ``There was only the army until then,'' he said......
The Maoist fighters, who follow the ideology of former Chinese leader Mao Zedong, may become part of a security force or used to protect national parks and resources or to guard television and telephone towers and radio stations, Lal said......
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Q&refer=france
Therefore, one has to watch how things pan out,
One too many armies
I don't know how big an army Nepal thinks it needs.
The CPN look like they are going to be able to form a government with an absolute majority, without coalition. If the Army dont think they can work with their former enemies it does not bode well with them taking orders from those same former enemies as their political masters. Might they not have a more reliable army if they keep the 32,500 that were on their side and disband the Kings army that were against them - or make them park rangers.
They could.
But the consequence would be grave for the sucontinental stabilty!!
It is scary!!
The Indian TV news indicates that King Gyanendra of Nepal fears for his safety since the Maoists have won.
The Indian govt has stated that there is no reason for the King to be concerned, though if there is any request, the Indian govt will grant asylum provided he guarantees that he will not indulge in political activities.
Maoists in Nepal orders the King to vacate his Palace.
This nexus between the Indian and Nepal Maoists may raise various new issues in the subcontinent.Kathmandu, April 18: The Nepal royal family has begun renovating King Gyanendra’s private residence, Nirmal Niwas, on a war footing after the Maoists issued a 28-day deadline to the king to vacate the Narayanhitti Palace.
Gyanendra’s son Prince Paras and his wife Himani are supervising the renovation of the Niwas, located in the busy Maharajgunj area of Kathmandu........
Maoist majority
The Maoists today inched closer to a simple majority under the direct voting system, bagging 119 seats in the elections.
With 240 seats up for grabs under the first-past-the-post voting system, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) is just two short of a clear majority, followed by Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala’s Nepali Congress with 35 seats and Communist Party of Nepal-UML (CPN-UML)with 31.
However, the former rebels got only 32 per cent of the votes cast under the proportionate representation system which prevents it from clinching a majority in the 601-seat Constituent Assembly.
http://www.telegraphindia.com/108041...ry_9158680.jsp
Interesting is also the fact that the internal problems of Tibet coincides with the unsettled situation in Nepal and India's sudden interest to reactivate old airfields bordering Tibet Autonomous Region.Nepal Factor
The Nepali Maoist organizations share a common objective with Indian Naxal organizations in overturning the status quo and establishing their own revolutionary rule. In 2004, both groups formed a cross border coordination committee to shelter each other’s cadres and share resources. These reports gives credence to the assumption that these two movements have more in common than just common ideology. The Indian and Nepali governments need to set their petty differences aside and coordinate the actions of their law enforcement bodies and administrations to deny sanctuary to the opposite side’s Naxal organizations. The recent flip-flops in Indian government policy in providing military aid to the Nepali government does not help the situation. The Indian government needs to adopt a consistent policy of providing support to the Nepal without allowing China and other countries to gain a foothold in Nepali affairs. While stopping arms supply to the RNA is not preferable as it will most certainly give China an opportunity to step in and provide arms to King Gyanendra, India needs to make sure that it’s arms are not used to suppress political dissent. Just as in India , the Nepali Maoists movement has it’s roots in genuine socio-political factors. Nepal must create conditions to clean the swamp that provides a fertile ground for fresh recruits.
Maoists in Bhutan
The other problem – though not as advanced as Nepal is Bhutan . Bhutan has a large refugee population composed primarily of Nepali origin. The Maoists are working hard to woo these refugees to join their movement and jump create trouble in Bhutan as well as Nepal . Although Bhutan did act finally to evict the ULFA training camps in 2004 after numerous Indian representations, a comprehensive solution has yet to be found to the refugee problem.
Bhutan is the ace up India ’s sleeve in case of North eastern India ’s problems going out of control. At least 50 youth from the refugee camps reportedly have joined the Maoists ranks.
http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/SRR/Volume21/paul.html
As also the Border Road Organisation being pulled out of non border laying of roads within India and being redeployed for roads along the Indo Tibet Border.
And why did the Dalai Lama leave India during this period for a visit to the USA? http://www.dalailamafoundation.org/m...ents.jsp#80710
.New Delhi: India is reactivating a military airfield which it operated 43 years ago and is a stone’s throw away from the Karakoram Pass held by China.
The last time India landed a fixed-wing aircraft at Daulat Beg Oldie airfield in northeastern Ladakh was in 1965. Landing fixed-wing at the airfield will enable India to induct troops swiftly.
"DBO (Daulat Beg Oldie) becomes very, very crucial because our troop strength there may have to be increased 10 times (in the event of a conflict). And if that happens when roads are in disuse, the only way will be to induct troops by air—that’s what was done during 1962,” says strategic affairs analyst Air Vice Marshal Kapil Kak.
Though a conflict with China looks improbable at the moment, Karakoram lies on an axis which could be used to threaten Ladakh. India is most vulnerable in this area. By activating the airfield at Daulat Beg Oldie, India would like to be seen as exercising a more assertive presence on the disputed boundary with China.
There are also plans to revive airfields at Chushul and Fukche further south along the Sino-Indian boundary in Ladakh. For a brief while after the Chinese aggression in 1962, these airstrips were extensively used for troop build-up and have since been in disuse. Provision of forward airstrips now is a priority not just in Ladakh but also in Arunachal
http://www.ibnlive.com/news/india-da...d/63546-3.html
and yet at the same time, India ensured a dead city syndrome in Delhi, when the Olympic Torch Relay ran the truncated 3 km route with none observing the same except the 21000 odd security forces who were guarding the route!!NEW DELHI, MARCH 1:In a show of urgency prompted by aggressive Chinese military activity along the India-China border, the Government has decided to withdraw the Border Roads Organisation (BRO) from road projects within the country and ordered immediate diversion of these resources to build over 1,100 km roads along the China border.
http://www.indianexpress.com/iep/sun...ry/279094.html
One wonders if there is more to it than what meets the eye.New Delhi, April 17: Indians today got to see what life in China is like, but only on television, through a charade played out on their own capital’s streets.
Delhi allowed China to use the iconic Rajpath to display posters against the Dalai Lama, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and the western media, while clinically clamping down on Tibetan protests.
As the Olympic torch trundled down Rajpath — hidden from ordinary Indian eyes by an iron curtain of security — official Chinese delegates were allowed to walk and bus with propaganda placards.
http://www.telegraphindia.com/archives/archive.html
Has the coming of Maoist in Nepal caused a churn in the fine balance that was there in Nepal and the adjoining areas?
Last edited by Ray; 04-19-2008 at 06:57 AM.
More as a bacgrounder:
China tries to sabotage border roads
22 Dec 2007, 0116 hrs IST,Amalendu Kundu,TNN
GANGTOK: The Kunming bonhomie notwithstanding, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China is undercutting Indian Army's efforts to strengthen its presence on the border. On November 23, a week before the visit of defence minister A K Antony and chief of army staff Gen Deepak Kapoor to Sikkim, PLA soldiers unloaded boulders in an effort to wreck the construction of a metalled road at Fingertips, a strategic spot near Gurudongmar in North Sikkim. The area is close to the Kangra La pass bordering south-west Tibet.
Indian troops, however, swung into action the next morning, and removed the obstruction. The road construction — at an altitude of 18,500 feet — was completed on November 27. Chinese representatives, however, did not speak about the offensive at Fingertips during a meeting between army representatives from both sides on November 23. They also kept quiet on the bunker dispute at the trijunction of Sikkim, Bhutan and Tibet.
Significantly, prior to the Fingertips manoeuvre, Chinese troops had entered Indian territory and asked Indian Army personnel manning the border post there to stop construction of the road.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/I...ow/2642152.cms
US bites the bullet?
KING AND COMRADES
- The Maoist victory in Nepal is not as conclusive as is made out
http://www.telegraphindia.com/108050...ry_9216492.jsp
No, it's not, but then the Communists comprised only minorities in the parliaments of many Eastern European states in the late 1940's. The Maoists may not have a "friendly" foreign army to lend them irresistable force, but there is no way that the hard-core is going to give up on their ultimate goals - whatever they may be - any time soon.
I just can't see how any real good will come out of this predicament, either for Nepal itself, or for India.
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