There are no historinc/cultural equivalents within Islam to the Reformation or Enlightenment, especially with regard to true toleration of minority religions (see dhimmitude...). Equating the basis or end product of Western intellectual or social growth to Islamic permutations is a non-starter.
Erdogan had his origins in outlawed radical Islamist parties. When he and his fellow travelers were set back by Kemalist devotees, he simply took the long-view. Going slower in ones efforts to "reform" the system does not mean those efforts will not continue. Each gain merely confirms the expectation for more.
Immigration will be the core issue for Turkey's entrance into the EU, not its religious history. After that is ultimately denied them, the Turkish peoples will resentfully feel discrimiated against and will begin to listen to the "We told you so..." rhetoric of the firebrands.
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