Force Structure for Small Wars

[Andy Pavord]

I have been out of town so I am a little late to the party. I would like to respond to a couple of points made.

I do not adovocate transferring the COIN mission to the Guard. I suggested that the infantry brigades in the Guard should be transformed to specialize in COIN. I would also like to see a few COIN BCTs on the active force complemented by some Guard COIN BCTs. I am not sure how many. the exact number could be determined by a strategic analysis of the potential need.

My main argument is that COIN and its variants are a specialized form of warfare. The tactics and techniques required to excel in COIN can be best developed in units that specialize in COIN. I therefore believe that the Army should develop a force of COIN BCTs in both the active and the reserve components. However, because of the uncertain nature of the threats that we face I would keep this COIN force structure relatively small. It should be big enough to ensure that tactics and techniques can be developed and tested and yet not so big that it detracts from the regular BCTs. Many politicans are supporting the idea of expanding the army. I would propse that some of this expansion could be devoted to COIN BCTs.

COIN BCTs could serve as the spearhead of the initial phase of either a stabilization campaign (after the high intensity fighting has defeated enemy regular forces) or of a counterinsurgency campaign. They could be allocated to the most critical part of the theater while regular BCTs take on the less critical areas. As the campaign continues, Guard BCTs could be deployed to replace active units.

Break to new subject:

I do not think that we can transfer the HIC mission to the Guard. HIC requires the ability to synchronize very complex systems under very demanding conditions. This takes an incredible amount of practice through high level collective training. Much more practice than Guard units can achieve in the time alloted during a normal drill year. Guard units can get there after mobilization, but it takes time. The nation needs HIC forces that can respond rapidly. Desert Shield is the case in point. I think that the case can be made that Guard units were ready by Feb 1991, but does anybody believe that Guard heavy units could have been deployed by Spt/Oct 1990? Guard heavy units are really part of the nation's strategic reserve. And given the unpredictable state of the world I think that we need them.

Break to the budget situation:

Our nation is going to run a deficit of over $500 billion dollars this year. The international capital markets will simply refuse to continue to fund our debt at this level. We will be forced to reduce spending in the near future. It is unrealistic to expect that defense will escape the budget reductions that are coming. No matter who is elected President, we should expect the defense budget to decrease significantly in the next few years.

The real question is how we will reduce defense spending. The most obvious place to start is Iraq. Shutting down America's particpation in the Iraq war would save lots of money. I am willing to bet that is where the politicians of both parties will start.

But leaving Iraq, even with its huge savings, will not be enough. We are really broke. So the Congress and the President will cut into the existing defense budget. That is where it gets interesting. All the Presidential candidates have promised to increase the size of the Army and Marine Corps. They will be reluctant to go back on those promises. They want to support our troops. So I bet they will go after our weapons and strategic programs. I am not sure if there are enough funds there to pay for the Army and Marine expansion, so they will look for other ways to cut. It will be really interesting to see what they come up with.

The hard truth is that America really has come up against its financial limitations. In the very near term, the capital markets will no longer buy American debt in the quantities required to sustain our defense spending at the current level. And that should scare us all.