is a very Clintonian assessment...
I have no doubt about the first statement. Or the last. Agree with both.There shouldn't be any doubt, however, that public opinion can be manipulated. Staying alive - and keeping your guys alive - will delay the Metz affect. It's also an attack against the enemy strategy, which is to remove public support for the COIN effort by creating casualties.
On the one in between those two we can differ in the matter of degree. Yes, it can delay it slightly; conversely, if the media sells ad space and time, it bleeds and leads and that, too is manipulation of public opinion, inadvertant or not. That aspect can negate any manipulation the other way. The 1/3 rule applies; as you point out, the bad guys know this and can work public opinion as well or better than we can and they aim for that wavering middle third. Here's an example LINK. Now why would they target the Germans...
Casualties are only part of the picture; for a few they are THE criteria, for most Americans results matter. More. Much more
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