I think you're overlooking the time to design. That involves years of system analysis, design and terst. The worst aspect of the problem is staffing up to do the work. Engineers who have spent a career in the civilian sector often have difficulty addressing the completely different set of needs and considerations for defense systems. Engineers who have "escaped" the defense sector usually refuse to return. The conflict would likely be over by the time the new aircraft emerged.
On the other hand, if we'd started in 2001 on an aircraft to support COIN ... we'd have found a way to put the A-10 back in production.
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