Quote Originally Posted by wm View Post
...Not too much dispersion these days vis-a-vis critical defense industry factories--for example, Lima, Ohio is the only tank factory in the US. Two big strikes--at, for example, Galveston, TX and Linden NJ--would have significant inpact on US mid/down stream petroleum industry. Or imagine the impact of a large ADM detonation in the vicinity of Hampton or beautiful downtown Norfolk, VA.
Yes and no. Agree on the lack of dispersion but also suggest that the lack of stupid Congressional restraints and the elimination of a lot of the regulatory burden would enable some amazing speed in reconstruction. Not to mention that a surprising number of plants exist in 'other' industries that are capable of conversion to war production. Biggest problem would be the skills of workers and that's not insurmountable. Not trying to suggest that it would be easy, just that it can be done.
Ken you quoted me out of context (are you looking for a job at the NYT? ) I was comparing the quality of our past and potential opponents, not the capabilities of our own forces.
If I did, my apologies. Seemed to me you were saying that COIN skills (I'm really starting to dislike that phrase. It's a bad misnomer) didn't equate to major conflict skills -- which is in a limited sense true but far from being totally correct or insurmountable.
Having been part of the IC's I & W (indications and warning) world, I am not quite as comfortable as you are about IC forecasting.
I didn't mean to imply that I was comfortable with it; I think the IC has some major malfunctions right now; some self induced and some legislatively imposed by the 535 person debacle that is our Congress. Fortunately, there are enough good people about that the shortfalls can be supplemented by folks outside the IC.
I am even less comfortable with the decisionmakers' ability to draw the right conclusions and act based on what the IC may tell them.
Touché.
Far from it. I never expected that war to occur after about 1978 anyway. I'm more worried about some mid rate power thinking it can pull off a Pearl Harbor-like event on US infrastructure in order to buy itself enough time to to do some local conquests and then be able to consolidate on its objective while the US tries to rebuild its shattered infrastructure. The attacking power would expect its consolidation would be strong enough to deter the US (and others) from interceding to restore the status quo ante. Imagine how things might have turned out in the Mid-East had Saddam tried such a tactic as or before he rolled over the border into Kuwait.
All things are possible. Some are more probable than others. Some are more difficult to do than to talk about. Effects also are difficult to judge in advance.

Been my observation that many over the years have made the usually fatal mistake of misjudging what can be done to the US and / or what the US can or will do. I do not expect that to change in the near term.