French urban rioting (catch all)

**Bill Moore** · 11-13-2005

The article states that the anti-globalists used internet technology in the same way to coordinate many of their activities in Seattle and Genoa, and I'm sure elsewhere, so this isn’t entirely new, but I still don’t think we have grasped the potential of this dangerous enabler to facilitate global and regional mass resistance movements.

While still a novice, I’m reading and reflecting as time permits on complexity theory and networks. This is one area I think Tom and I disagree on, because I think the riots in France are a harbinger of worse to come for Western Europe. What may have been a series of isolated riots in due largely to economic disparity, is now potentially the seed of a semi-radical Muslim movement throughout Western Europe.

I want to clarify that statement, first I don’t like the use of semi-radical (it is simply expedient), but I don’t think the riots are due to Islamists, but for the most part frustrated main stream Muslims who can’t (or won’t) integrate into their country’s culture and economy. This isolation and economic disparity will obviously create a breeding ground for an insurgency over time, whether the insurgency is in the form of voting blocks, passive action, or violent activities. Currently we have a series of riots that I believe the French will eventually suppress. The riots while disruptive are not the greatest danger, it is the new network, new mass movement, of frustrated European Muslims. I’m sure leaders have emerged over the last few days, and informal groups, that could easily become formal resistance groups. These leaders will likely be approached by Islamists, and they will become increasing sophisticated and globally linked (think globally, act locally).

Furthermore this problem is not confined to France, as there is potential for this to spread to like minded folks and groups in Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Spain to name a few. I think the seeds of a new insurgency have been planted and in time these riots will be seen as the genesis of the movement.

Why we struggle with our intelligence bureaucracy with grossly over classified documents, and stove piped organizations, which prohibit us from seeing the larger picture in a timely manner, the insurgents are moving at the speed of the internet. Who is inside who’s decision cycle?

**Jedburgh** · 11-13-2005

Originally Posted by Bill Moore

The article states that the anti-globalists used internet technology in the same way to coordinate many of their activities in Seattle and Genoa, and I'm sure elsewhere, so this isn’t entirely new, but I still don’t think we have grasped the potential of this dangerous enabler to facilitate global and regional mass resistance movements.

While still a novice, I’m reading and reflecting as time permits on complexity theory and networks. This is one area I think Tom and I disagree on, because I think the riots in France are a harbinger of worse to come for Western Europe. What may have been a series of isolated riots in due largely to economic disparity, is now potentially the seed of a semi-radical Muslim movement throughout Western Europe.

With the focus on the "Muslim" factor, what hasn't been discussed very much in the news is the significance of the role that youth street gangs have played in the violence. A large factor in the rolling anarchic violence has been competition between gangs to cause more violence than their peers in order to get their turf on television. Most of those arrested so far have been teenagers and petty criminals - not Muslim radicals and bearded fanatics.

To elaborate on the economic point, in the overall immigrant community, unemployment reaches 40%. Violence within this community has been simmering under the surface for a very long time, with frequent short outbreaks - never really seriously dealt with - until this final massive failure of the French state.

Also, the burning cars that make such good video are not anything new in France - in the first seven months of this year, before the riots, over 21,000 cars were burned in the country. As bad as the situation really is, sensationalism in reporting still takes precedence over context.

However, as Bill states, the situation could still prove to be fertile ground for future Jihadists. I believe that most who are - or will be - moving in that direction will not need to be "recruited" so to speak - they will self-refer, using the internet or known acquaintances to make contact. Then there is the danger of spontaneous formation of terror cells among elements of the rioters - fueled by info and terrorist lessons learned readily available online. This is one aspect of "threat migration" that is unique to the information age.

I've posted this before, but the situation in France makes for excellent context in which to look it over again. I'm speaking of Dr. Sprtzak’s Indicators for Radical Groups at Risk for Terrorism. You'll notice that almost all of them fit in some manner the immigrant groups that we are currently focusing on in France. There are a couple that are currently developing, and the one regarding external influence and manipulation - well, that's the one that has us all concerned right now.

• The intensity of delegimitization
• Moral inhibitions and non-violence taboos
• Previous experience with violence
• Rational assessment of risks vs opportunities
• Organizational, financial, and political resources
• Sense of imminent threat
• Intergroup competition
• Age of activists
• External influence and manipulation
• Sense of humiliation and need for revenge
• Presence of violent leaders

The French government needs to quickly start sorting out, not simply an end to the violence, but an effective long-term solution to the serious social problem it is facing. If it doesn't do this effectively, then it will be facing a internal violence problem of much greater significance.