......There do not seem to be any points of agreement between the sides on how to avoid future escalation of the conflict. What is worse, the sides are hardly speaking to each other, let alone listening. Vashadze said that Moscow had indicated that it might allow Georgia to retain nominal sovereignty over Abkhazia and South Ossetia but only if it repudiated its bid to join NATO. Last January in a national referendum, however, over 70 percent of Georgians voted to join the alliance, and the government in Tbilisi is in no position to ignore their expressed will.
The West is at present annoyed by the growing tension but not ready to intervene seriously. The Georgians want to replace or supplement Russian peacekeepers with a multinational force, but EU nations do not have extra troops to send and also believe that Afghanistan, Sudan, Lebanon, Iraq and Iran are more serious problems. Meanwhile, according to OSCE observers in South Ossetia, there are shooting incidents virtually every day.
In Moscow generals and diplomats do not issue threatening statements without explicit authorization from the top leaders. The language of General Burutin's statement may indicate that Moscow has already made a tentative political decision to commence serious military action in Abkhazia and/or Ossetia in the coming months. Western indifference may be ill-timed.
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