Good Lord...
Even a whisper of a "Coup in Baghdad" is a disaster just waiting to happen. On the other side of the coin, and as much as I like the idea of partition as solution, we must be equally careful there.Originally Posted by SWJED
Two critical questions must be answered before the government of Iraq proceeds with any partition/regional autonomy plan:
First, are the regional players (provincal, tribal, religious) going to be included in discussions? This matter goes well beyond, in my opinion, those legislators who have installed themselves in the government via the elections. It is something on the scale of another referendum, because it cannot be decided and administered from Baghdad alone. The balance of representation in the government is not 30% Sunni, 30% Kurd, and 30% Shia, but the Sunnis will certainly expect decisionmaking to come about only if they have an equal voice. I've seen such an "equal voice" dynamic at play many times. This cannot be ignored.
Second, is the idea of partition based on the observation or assumption that the insurgents will adopt the view that partition is best for the country and meets their goals? Unless we have developed more intelligence on, and understanding of, the insurgent movement, the last thing I knew was that no one really knew what they wanted. Is it coalition removal, as many dead coalition members as possible, safe havens for their Sunni or Shia neighbors? Are the powers-that-be even considering what the reaction will be when partition starts to take place and troops leave? What if the insurgency swells against what little power the central government has left? Will partition drive those localised insurgents towards open civil war?
These are dark, treacherous waters to navigate, and I hope someone is pausing to consider all these issues. If we fail to get this "new course" right, we'll have two lost years in Iraq. The first under the CPA and Bremer. The second will be when we've miscalculated again and the Army dissolves (or becomes composed of 100% Shia) because the Sunni soldiers have deserted to take up arms in defense of their homes and neighborhoods.
We fought the Cold War in part due to perceptions. Bullet-ridden bodies dumped in canals and back alleys of Baghdad are not perceptions, but a harsh reality that civil war looms ahead. I would not blame a single man-on-the-street if he thought that civil war was coming. It is not about what any of us in this forum, or any think tank fellows, believe.
Who is going to help the IZ government with the IO campaign to support the notion of partition?
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