Quote Originally Posted by Entropy View Post
Probably the best primer on the subject is Cynthia Grabo's now-declassified and updated text from the 1970's. In a simplistic nutshell, indications analysis works backward from a particular end-state. A series of indicators, or signposts, on the way to that end-state are developed and then monitored. Although developed for warning, any end-state or scenario can be broken down and analyzed using this methodology. The advantages are two-fold: It can be used to make predictions (which is what it was originally designed to do) but it also can provide a means to analyze and compare various courses of action one might take.
I've always thought that this quote from Grabo should be framed and hung on a number of walls (especially in the NGO/aid "early warning" community):

The researcher should take care not to be trapped in a rigid system which cannot be readily expanded or modified as new developments occur. The system should be designed to serve the analyst, not to have the analyst serve the system.