Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Political Commentary

[Fuchs]

I'm almost sure that this won't become a full-scale war, but end in a few days with a cease-fire.

Reason:
A full war would be detrimental to Putin's interests.
He wants the Georgian government weakened, and eventually replaced by an at the very least neutral government.

I admit that I was a bit puzzled when the Russians didn't accept Georgian cease-fire offers after the Russians had taken control over SO.
Well, I assumed that the Russians wanted to test how much they could gain at the table on top of control over SO.
I did NOT expect them to be so blatant as they apparently are. Well, strong man's negotiation style, I guess.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...efer=worldwide :

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in a telephone conversation today that Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili ``must go,'' meaning he should be ousted from office, Khalilzad said.

SO is an interesting region in the mid-term. The Georgians will want it back, and whatever government they get, it would be strengthened if it gets SO back.
The Russians hold a nice piece of sugar in their hand.

------

The worst nightmare of Putin regarding Georgia might be a Georgian-U.S. bilateral alliance (even if that meant that Georgia had to recognize Abchasia and SO).

Just another way of looking at it

True.
And it shows how disastrous political national security decisions of politicians can be.
I wonder whether this head of government Saakash...something had a thorough briefing by his officers.
I cannot find an explanation for the still open tunnel, though.

This conflict reminds me a bit of the Falklands War.