But it would be counterproductive for Russian troops to move into Georgia beyond the border of South Ossetia, analysts said. "It would be most unpleasant for [President Dmitry] Medvedev at the beginning of his presidential term to be viewed around the world as the aggressor," Malashenko said.
Still, when Russia seeks a return to the status quo of continued separatism in South Ossetia, there will not be as many people with Russian passports living there, Khramchikhin said. "Many refugees who fled to Russia will fear to come back, despite Putin's promise to restore Tskhinvali with Russian money," he said.
Also, Russia's military victory over Georgia could be short-lived because other former Soviet republics will now seek protection from the West after seeing what happened in South Ossetia, fearing that their differences with Moscow might one day lead to an armed invasion, analysts said.
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