Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Political Commentary

[Norfolk]

Has anyone else noticed that the cold wars back and getting warmer by the minute.

Yeah. For some time I was almost missing the good old days...until they came back. Now I'm starting to recall a little about why we were somewhat on edge back then. Funny, the last few weeks I've been thinking forget China/Taiwan/South China Sea as the likeliest theatre for the next potential big conventional war, it's Eastern Europe - Ukraine above all - that we should be worrying about. Guess Georgia may form a prelude.

[Ron Humphrey]

Yeah. For some time I was almost missing the good old days...until they came back. Now I'm starting to recall a little about why we were somewhat on edge back then. Funny, the last few weeks I've been thinking forget China/Taiwan/South China Sea as the likeliest theatre for the next potential big conventional war, it's Eastern Europe - Ukraine above all - that we should be worrying about. Guess Georgia may form a prelude.

But I wouldn't necessarily look to others not counting their chickens before they've hatched. Noone has ever gotten everything they wanted and it those details within which the devils reside

I just hope the planners on the various sides have considered how this type of thing generally tends to leave the planned path quickly.

[Norfolk]

I just hope the planners on the various sides have considered how this type of thing generally tends to leave the planned path quickly.

But Ron, making a sober assessment of what you would like (and may actually be capable of) to do, what the enemy may (and might be capable of doing) also do, and how it may all turn to liquid state anyway takes all the fun out of planning and starting wars. After all, no one likes a party-pooper. (But maybe we should listen to them anyway, perhaps....)

[Ron Humphrey]

But Ron, making a sober assessment of what you would like (and may actually be capable of) to do, what the enemy may (and might be capable of doing) also do, and how it may all turn to liquid state anyway takes all the fun out of planning and starting wars. After all, no one likes a party-pooper.

But these days I've just about reached my RK stage,

Can't we all just get along!

- Rodney King

[selil]

I'm no expert but isn't it likely that this is as much a cold war tactic of proxy statism? The United States sits in the middle of Iraq and Afghanistan with first strike capability against every middle eastern well head. The Russians can look at that with a fairly malevolent eye. I don't believe for a minute that moving into Ossetia is about patriotism. With the Move into South Ossetia and the ability to now role right over Armenia and Azerbejizian (sp?) that puts the soviets into a stronger position to forestall US adventurism into Iran. It looks like simple barrier and balance diplomacy. The continuing assault only strengthens my supposition. I know go hide under my rock. I won't even mention that RBN used cyber war in this conflict EXACTLY like I said it could be used years ago.

[jmm99]

occupied by Georgian ethnic populations (1/5 to 1/3 of So. Ossetia pop., depending on source).

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/...tia-Glance.php
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_South_Ossetia_War
http://www.forcedmigration.org/guides/fmo001/fmo001.pdf

Insert to Fuchs' map showing (orange) areas controlled by Georgia 7 Aug looks more like an patchwork, possibly following river valleys (seems so, from SO2 map below).

That insert has some resemblence to the agency's ethnic map for Caucasian region, but the latter is at too small a scale to match exact areas in the insert.

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Im...sus-ethnic.jpg

Here is a blowup of the Georgian-controlled areas (ultimate source ?)

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...s/d/d1/SO2.jpg

The map (post by kaur #40) has the villages identified (Geo vs Oss). Looks like a GA march north to the Roki Tunnel would have been an uphill climb through unfriendly (Oss) mountain country. Remind you of another war a long time ago ?

So, perhaps the GA deployed in an effort to protect their own by being there - a noble political thought, but maybe not the best plan to repel an invasion. Wasn't ARVN strung out something like that at the end ?

Which goes to prove that, if one (JMM) has no experience in an area; and has incomplete maps re: troops, population, etc. - one be a-guessin big time in reaching any military or political conclusion.

PS1: Rus Maps (link by kaur # 38) has topo maps (slow dl) + a cute little Velo Gal for you youngsters. Also has an English page linked, with same Velo Gal.

http://www.topomaps.eu/

PS2: For anyone out there who might be a cold war lover, multi-beaked birds can still fly on both sides.

[kaur]

I found one nice radio broadcast in Russian. Lady is famous Russian journalist and she explains the situation in the whole North Caucasus very well. You have to use google translator again. Would you paste to Google window

Эхо Москвы / Передачи / Код доступа / Суббота, 09.08.2008

and use 1 link's "translate this page"

[Stan]

Some intriguing articles this morning herein. Kinda makes me wonder how long these staff writers will be around

Moscow Flexes Muscles but Little Will Change

But it would be counterproductive for Russian troops to move into Georgia beyond the border of South Ossetia, analysts said. "It would be most unpleasant for [President Dmitry] Medvedev at the beginning of his presidential term to be viewed around the world as the aggressor," Malashenko said.

Still, when Russia seeks a return to the status quo of continued separatism in South Ossetia, there will not be as many people with Russian passports living there, Khramchikhin said. "Many refugees who fled to Russia will fear to come back, despite Putin's promise to restore Tskhinvali with Russian money," he said.

Also, Russia's military victory over Georgia could be short-lived because other former Soviet republics will now seek protection from the West after seeing what happened in South Ossetia, fearing that their differences with Moscow might one day lead to an armed invasion, analysts said.

Conflict Opens Front in the Media

Russian television is flush with footage of misery left by the Georgian assault in the separatist district of South Ossetia, but few, if any, reports mention Russia's bombing of Georgia.

William Dunbar, a correspondent in Georgia for English-language state channel Russia Today, mentioned the bombing in a report Saturday, and he has not gone on air for the station since. "The real news, the real facts of the matter, didn't conform to what they were trying to report, and therefore, they wouldn't let me report it.

[Fuchs]

Generally, the understanding of what they're criticizing is superficial or ill-informed (as was your comment I quoted here and a few others over the past weeks) and -- this is important -- we don't really care what you think but are willing to mention some things you might not have thought of.

Yeah, right. You don't know whom or what arguments I'm talking about, but you know they're wrong. Looks like a holy cow rests on the road ahead.


@Wilf;
I see some possible excuses for the Georgians that would not imply operational incompetence. Instead, they imply political incompetence.
I've seen lots of info right now that hint at successful provocations by Russia (via its proxy SO) prior to this hot war phase (even including artillery attacks on Georgian settlements).
It looks like Saakashvili took the bait, and he did it in a way that gave the Russians an easy opportunity for intervention.

It reminds me a lot of mid-19th century to pre-WWI politics.

-----

About the map; it looks pretty similar to Bosnian war maps and also a bit reminiscent of Sino-Japanese War maps.
The Russian advance guard smashed right through the main Georgian enclave early on - that was probably already the decision of the war.
The last info that I got is that the Russians advanced beyond SO to the next Georgian city. It looks like they want to increase pressure on the Georgian government till it resigns.

[William F. Owen]

@Wilf;
I see some possible excuses for the Georgia that would not imply operational incompetence. Instead, they imply political incompetence.
I've seen lots of info right now that hint at successful provocations by Russia (via its proxy SO) prior to this hot war phase (even including artillery attacks on Georgian settlements).
It looks like Saakashvili took the bait, and he did it in a way that gave the Russians an easy opportunity for intervention.

It reminds me a lot of mid-19th century to pre-WWI politics.

I'm not sure the Gruzynim are as stupid as some may think. If Georgia ends up in NATO, with US bases on it's soil, it may make things look a bit different.

[Fuchs]

Well, that won't happen without losing SO and Abchasia.
The European governments said pretty clearly that they don't want a new ally who has territorial disputes involving Russia. Especially not one who doesn't add any relevant advantages to NATO.

The best the Georgians can hope for without losing SO and Abchasia officially is probably a bilateral alliance with the USA.
I wonder why the USA didn't offer such an alliance after it tried (unsuccessfully) to get Georgia into NATO. GWB looked committed to offer Georgia an alliance, but didn't go the whole distance after NATO partners declined.

BTW, I don't think they are necessarily stupid - politicians have to re-learn alliance building politics and serious national security politics nowadays.
It's not 19th century anymore when the whole world was so volatile and full of great power games that foreign policy was a lot about these things.

[Jedburgh]

For those interested, the RFE/RL Crisis in South Ossetia page has a slew of analytic articles, backgrounders, a timeline, and a multimedia reporting......

[wm]

Not to mention Russia's ability to impose a complete air and naval blockade on Georgia (it has already partly done this).

For a variety of reasons--in order to respond to perceived NATO and US encroachment in their sphere of influence, to highlights the limits of US power in the area, in order to signal "don't mess with us" to the rest of the CIS states, to assert that they are a superpower not to be be trifled with, to show they still have real military power, and for domestic political reasons--the Russians have every incentive to make the Georgians very miserable indeed.

Again, perfectly predictable. Why it wasn't foreseen in Tbilisi will, I am sure, be a quite interesting story.

Let's not forget that the US seems to be closer to freeing up a lot of troops in Iraq, troops that could be used as a deterrent to a future (say after next winter's thaws provide the next real opportunity to cross the Caucasus). Waiting to project power definitely did not seem to be in the Russians' best interest.

I would not be surprised that the Georgians took the first step to try to protect ethnic Georgians in the region, sort of a preemptive move because they knew/feared that, to borrow a movie title, "The Russians are coming, the Russians are coming". BTW, one ought not to expect the Georgians to conduct mil ops to block a counter-invasion. Since they do not recognize SO independence, they do not view their moves as an invasion . Instead, they may well see what they were doing as what any really good government does--protect its citizens from outlaws and banditry, with the SO separatists (supported by who knows what Russians and and other assorted Cossacks may decide to cross the border) being the outlaws and bandits in this case.

Of course, this may just be a case of Georgia playing "chicken," daring the Russians to match their rhetoric about supporting independence movements with action. I still am waiting to see who makes the final swerve because IMHO what has happened to date is not the final head-on collision that results when neither "driver" backs off.

[Rank amateur]

Wow did you really say that? I wonder how many of the Czechs or Slovak people would view that.

Virtually all of them.

After a transition period of roughly four years, during which the relations between the states could be characterised as a "post-divorce trauma", the present relations between Czechs and Slovaks, as many people point out, are probably better than they have ever been.

No movement to re-unite Czechoslovakia has appeared and no political party advocates it in its programme. Political influences between the countries are minimal. Trade relationships were re-established and stabilized. After a short interruption, Slovakia's mountains are again the target of a growing number of Czech tourists.

I know this is an opportunity you've been looking forward to to be able to say just this,

When you're outnumbered, patiently waiting in an ambush is often the best tactical response. If you understand the situation, sometimes you don't need to wait very long, but since no one charged it, I have to assume that it wasn't a near ambush.

[Stan]

Pop in and take a gander at President Medvedev's working meetings and conferences

Beginning of Working Meeting with Minister of Internal Affairs Rashid Nurgaliev
August 11, 2008
The Kremlin, Moscow

DMITRY MEDVEDEV: Rashid Gumarovich, I have received information, and you have probably also heard this, that the Georgian authorities are forcibly detaining Russian citizens on Georgian territory. This is, of course, in complete violation of international law. I do not know why they are doing this. Maybe they think they can use these people as a human shield. This is a completely unacceptable situation.

I also want to say - and I want you to take this under your personal control – that all citizens of foreign states, who are legally in Russia, must not be subjected to any kind of discrimination and can remain in Russia in accordance with the agreements that our country has with the countries from which these people have come. Supervision of these matters is the Ministry of Internal Affairs’ responsibility and I ask you to ensure it is carried out.

RASHID NURGALIEV: Dmitry Anatolyevich, we issued just such instructions three days ago, when Georgia launched its aggression against South Ossetia. We immediately sent out precisely these instructions throughout the Southern Federal District, given that this is the part of the country where the biggest numbers of people from Georgia reside, and we also gave specific instructions to the Federal Migration Service to monitor these matters throughout the Russian Federation.

We understand that the people are not to blame for this aggression and we will therefore do everything we can to uphold the law and protect the rights and interests of citizens living in Russia or present on our territory.

We have ensured public order in the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania over these last three days. Registered crimes have dropped two-fold and there has been a four-fold drop in the number of serious crimes.

All the necessary conditions are now in place for providing humanitarian assistance to the Republic of South Ossetia. In particular, a column set out directly for Tskhinvali at 5 a.m. this morning, and an extra 37 KAMAZ vehicles have been made available for transporting humanitarian aid - food, medicines and medical equipment – that will be used on the ground to help people.

DMITRY MEDVEDEV: Good, keep working, keep it under your control and report to me periodically on the public order situation in North Ossetia, in the North Caucasus in general and in the country overall, of course.

RASHID NURGALIEV: I will.

Much more at this link...

[wm]

Pop in and take a gander at President Medvedev's working meetings and conferences

Beginning of Working Meeting with Minister of Internal Affairs Rashid Nurgaliev
August 11, 2008
The Kremlin, Moscow



Much more at this link...

Great political theatrics--each speaker reads his script well. I am amazed that the Russians still play at these "Potemkin village" sham displays.

[Ken White]

Great political theatrics--each speaker reads his script well.

be an Oscar contender...

...I am amazed that the Russians still play at these "Potemkin village" sham displays.

Old habits die hard...

[wm]

Some folks have pointed to this as a quid pro qou for Kosovo and as a direct lesson to Georgia wrt to joining NATO.

One might wonder how much of this activity on the part of the Russians (particularly the new reports of incursions from Abkhazia) is pointed at the Ukraine--both wrt to its NATO membership aspirations and to the lease on port facilities in Sevastapol that expires 9 years hence in 2017. Russia's warmwater port issue is a long standing sore point.

Also the purported use of Cossacks is an interesting twist, given that sizeable remnants of Cossack "hordes" exist in both the Ukraine and Kazakhstan. The Russians have used an appeal to Cossack "nationalism" in times past to help them in their foreign affairs.

Has the Great Game moved from the "roof of the world" to the mountains on the other side of the Caspian Sea?

[Uboat509]

Just saw that the Russians have captured a city in Georgia, one that happens to be only about 50-60 miles outside of Tiblisi. I'm still thinking that the Russians will stop short of that while they still maintain a small amount of plausible deniability about their intentions but I am not sure. So what does everyone think, will they move on Tiblisi? What does it mean if they do? They can hardly say they were just trying to free poor oppressed South Ossetia if they attack Georgia's capital especially if they capture and occupy it. Georgia sounds desperate. I don't see Europe getting directly involved. The UN is... well... the UN. We're kind of busy. On the other hand, Russia has to be aware that there will be some diplomatic and economic penalties if they push this too far (which granted is hard to define).

SFC W

[selil]

Who will oppose them?