Quote Originally Posted by Norwiscutter View Post
I use the term stopped lightly as reports coming out through today about the actual cessation of hostilities are mixed, but if in fact Medvedev has called off the dogs, why stop now
Two words: "Operational pause". The Russians had to pause anyhow to rest and resupply after multiple days of combat. Why not score a few diplomatic points (and maybe even resolve the whole thing diplomatically) while your troops are consolidating their positions, catching a few winks, and getting a fresh load of diesel in their T-72's?

if one of the desired goals at the onset of all this was the attainment of a Georgian regime change?
Regime change is happening anyhow after a screwup of this magnitude by Saakashvili. The last thing that the Russians want to do is create a martyr out of him. The Russians are going to dictate the terms of the peace to Georgia, they will be terms the Georgians don't like, and Saakashvilli will either accept them or not accept them but either way he will be the goat and out of office shortly.

The Russians seam to have pushed this past the point of making a viable case to the west about the legitimacy of their actions
"the west" is not of interest to them other than as customers for their oil and gas. Their immediate neighbors are of more pressing interest to them. I believe there are people in the government ministries of multiple Trashcanistans that as we speak are recomputing the assurances that they have received from the United States... thus insuring that they will remember the prime rule if you are living next to Russia, "don't poke the bear." Because even a shabby and decrepit old bear likely still has enough teeth in that grizzled muzzle to make you regret it.

The current Russian assessment of the geopolitical environment has determined that a show of restraint at this point will garner sufficient political capital and credibility. This possibly is viable if predictions for
Or, they have to pause anyhow, so they might as well try the diplomatic route for a day to let the fuel trucks catch up with getting their T-72's and BMP's topped up. That's a long skinny supply route back to Russia, y'know.

The Russians have determined that the potential defense of Tbilisi would prove to be too costly and therefore have instead decided to simply wait the Georgians out.
Or they simply have no desire to go into cities and towns. For example, according to Reuters the Russians are on the outskirts of Gori, but have not gone into the city. Apparently Grozny re-taught them that cities are a bad place for tanks. Or they have decided that where they are gives them sufficient leverage to get what they want -- formal recognition of the full autonomy of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Or they have decided that Saakashvili is a loose cannon and will do something else to give them a pretext to go farther, so they might as well wait to see what stupid thing he does next. Or a Martian invasion fleet has materialized over the Kremlin and scooped out the brains of Putin and Medvedev and replaced them with alien grey matter. Point being speculation is interesting, but the only speculation we have that we know is true is that if the Russians have been fighting for five days straight, they're tired and in need of resupply and thus an operational pause is in order. What they intend to do during this pause, or after... well, we shall see, shall we not?