Before citing some refs to Turkey, this is a map showing the pre-1992 autonomous regions in the Caucasus.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Caucasiamapussr.gif
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Articles from EDM (1st 3 are background)
http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373293LUKOIL AND TURKEY
By John C. K. Daly
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
As Europe frets over the political implications of Gazprom’s increasing presence in the EU market, another Russian energy company has quietly made an inroad into hydrocarbon-starved Turkey.
.....
For Ankara, however, the sale merits careful consideration. Turkey already receives 65 percent of its natural gas exports from Russia, and as recently as last winter Gazprom cut supplies, forcing Ankara to dip into its stored reserves (EDM, January 23). In the event of rising tension between Moscow and Ankara, whether political or something as simple as a pricing dispute, LUKoil’s new acquisitions, if they became political pawns, could affect everything from heating to “trains, planes and automobiles.” All Ankara can do at the moment is wonder whether the allure of the free market will trump the siren song emanating from the Kremlin. As Russia’s new president was formerly chairman of Gazprom’s board of directors, it seems likely that the Kremlin will follow Alekperov’s acquisition with more than passing interest. .....
http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373297TURKEY COOPERATES WITH KOREA TO DEVELOP A NATIONAL MAIN BATTLE TANK
By Saban Kardas
Thursday, August 7, 2008
Turkey continues to announce new armament programs that involve the development and production of a “Turkish brand” of major weapons systems. .... Eventually, Turkey plans to replace all its MBTs, as many 1,000, which will become obsolete in the next few decades (Hurriyet, Sabah and Radikal, July 30). .....
http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373301EXPLOSION RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT THE SECURITY OF THE BTC PIPELINE
By Gareth Jenkins
Friday, August 8, 2008
On August 5 there was an explosion and subsequent fire on a section of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline running through eastern Turkey, resulting in the flow of oil through the pipeline being halted. .... On August 8 officials from Turkey’s state-owned Turkish Pipeline Company (BOTAS) predicted that it would take another 10-14 days for the pipeline to be repaired, with some forecasting that it could be as much as three months before the pipeline was once again operating normally (Today’s Zaman, August 8). ......
http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373305TURKEY CAUGHT IN A DILEMMA OVER SOUTH OSSETIA
By Gareth Jenkins
Monday, August 11, 2008
The outbreak of fighting between Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia has demonstrated the cost of Ankara’s often confused attempt at achieving a balance between becoming a regional player in the Caucasus and the need to maintain a working relationship with Moscow.
.....
The outbreak of fighting on August 7 caught Turkey completely unprepared. ...
[what follows is a 3 paragraph description of various inconsistent actions by Erdogan and Putin’s refusal to speak with him] ....
Turkish commentators have been unanimous in attributing Putin’s refusal to speak with Erdogan to Russian fury over Turkish military aid to Georgia, noting that Russia’s stranglehold over Turkey’s supplies of natural gas mean that it can afford simply to ignore any Turkish protests over Russian policy in the Caucasus (Hurriyet, Radikal, Yeni Safak, Zaman, August 11).....
http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373313TURKEY AND THE PROBLEMS WITH THE BTC
By John C. K. Daly
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
With Western eyes fixed on the clash between Russia and Georgia over the disputed enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the conflict is affecting neighboring countries’ oil shipments, particularly Azerbaijan and transit nation Turkey.
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Quite aside from concerns about restoring tranquility in the Caucasus, Turkey has deep fiscal concerns impelling it to seek a quick end to the conflict. On August 11 Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili telephoned Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan seeking his assistance in ending the clash (Hurriyet, August 12). The same day Erdogan spoke with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to discuss the armed confrontation, urging the UN to take initiatives to end the clash and restore peace and stability to the Caucasus (Sabah, August 12). Erdogan also proposed establishing a Caucasus alliance to ensure peace and stability in the region. It would include Caucasian nations along with the United States, the EU and Russia. "Turkey is ready to play a key role in making this alliance a reality. But this idea needs to be discussed under UN auspices to become practicable," he said.
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Quite aside from diplomatic concerns, for Turkey, which imports 90 percent of its energy needs and 65 percent of its natural gas from Gazprom, the sooner the dispute is resolved the better, so it can begin again to collect transit revenues to pay Moscow’s ever-rising energy bills.
http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article...cle_id=2373317DEVILS AND DETAILS: AHMADINEJAD VISITS TURKEY
By Gareth Jenkins
Thursday, August 14, 2008
......
A similar naivety can be seen in Erdogan’s recent peace initiative in the Caucasus. ...
[what follows is a paragraph description of Erdogan's efforts at a Caucasian Pact - see prec. ref.] ....
Neither the newspaper nor Erdogan appeared to realize that while all efforts to end the bloodshed were welcome, the whole point of Moscow’s fierce military response to Georgia’s attempt to regain control of South Ossetia was to demonstrate Russia’s hegemony in its “near abroad.” Moscow is unlikely to have any desire to dilute its authority through a pact, particularly one that brings the United States and the EU into the region.
Nor did Erdogan appear to be aware that if the AKP were serious about Turkey acceding to the EU, he needed to try to ensure that Turkey’s foreign policies were coordinated with, or at least complementary to, those of the EU. ....
Seems that, so far, Turkish diplomacy has not reached 1st base.
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