Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
What does the community think of the article's assertion and its implications? It reminds me of a particular theory (I forget its author) which suggested that the peace in Europe is not the consequence of new attitudes and institutions (i.e. the EU), but of the massive population displacements post WW2. Is "peace" really only possible when clear lines of demographics are drawn?
Ralph Peters would argue so, and has in several of his works, although I am not totally sold.

I've headed down this path on a number of boards (and I'm sure COL Gentile will jump in too ), but I'm getting tired of all the singular "credit" certain things take for the Iraqi success, when in reality it was a combination of:

  • Additional forces added to Baghdad and key areas (President)
  • New operational tactics in the US and Iraqi forces (outposts, pop security)
  • Co-option of local tribes and militias to provide security. Sunni tribes ceasing to fight US forces.
  • Over-reach of AQIZ, pissing off the populace with car-bombs and thuggery
  • Sadr declaring cease-fire, perhaps due to reduction of Iranian support for Sadr
  • War fatigue in the population
  • Black ops destroying insurgent networks (Woodward)
  • Population security measures
  • Ethnic Cleansing (this article)
  • Much improved Iraqi Army performance
  • 400% increase in airstrikes (Andres)


I submit to the council it was a combination of all of the above, and various groups have been jockeying for credit along one or more lines to justify a particular view or to secure funds for their particular initiative.

To be honest, I don't know what the correct mixture was. I think there will be arguments for a long time about what mix of factors reduced tension in 2007-2008.

Finally, the genesis of the Anbar article I co-wrote came from Tom Odom on an old thread discussing what happened to the ASW campaign in the North Atlantic in 1943. At the beginning of 1943, German subs were sinking massive tonnage. By the end of 1943 the threat was essentially gone. Why? There was no one reason - we bombed the sub bases, enigma intercepts, sonar improved, better convoy tactics, long range ASW aircraft patrols, more destroyers, escort carriers, fuel shortages, etc. No one factor could create the change alone, the combination did.

Same for Iraq.